Antigua and Barbuda Election Day Weather

8 06 2014

Dale C. S. Destin |

By now, all are aware that June 12, 2014 is Election Day in Antigua and Barbuda. What may not be known is the forecast for the day. Will the weather be a factor? Historically, has the weather ever impacted Election Day?

The mean rainfall for June 12 is 3.8 mm; the mean temperature is 27.8°C and the mean wind speed is around 14 mph. The forecast for Election Day 2014 calls for dry weather – less than 1 mm with the mean temperature not exceeding 27.8°C and the mean wind speed measuring less than 12 mph. While rainfall is unlikely, the heat could make casting your ballot relatively uncomfortable, especially if it is done around mid-day to early afternoon.

The history shows that this is the first time general elections will be held in June in Antigua and Barbuda. Apart from the political heat, this election is expected to be conducted under the warmest weather conditions ever in the history of the country; however, the temperature won’t be anything unusual for this time of the year.

The mean maximum temperature for June 12 is 30.6°C; however, the temperature across Antigua and Barbuda is highly influenced by the sea surface temperatures of the tropical Atlantic. Thus, with the Atlantic currently having cooler than normal temperatures, this will continue to causes our temperature to be normal to below normal. Hence, this June 12 is not expected to exceed what we are accustomed to for this time of the year but much warmer than is the norm for general elections for our islands.

Looking at past general elections, the first one was held in November, 1946. For the period, 1946 to 2009, there have been 15 general elections: two in February, five in March, two in April, four in Nov and one in December.

Election Day is normally dry, especially since 1971 due to it being held in the dry season. Most elections have been without rainfall with the maximum rainfall for an Election Day being 3.6 mm – Feb 18, 1976. Incidentally, this was also the seventh wettest February on record.

(The historical weather is based largely on observations at the V. C. Bird Int’l Airport; the local weather for polling stations may have been slightly different).

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