Updated Hurricane Season Forecast

1 09 2014

Dale C. S. Destin |

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season could turn out to be even quieter than initially predicted. Thus far, there have only been three named storms, incidentally, all of which developed into hurricanes (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal). However, for a normal season, by the end of August, there are usually five named storms already formed.

The consensus forecast, based on predictions of the hurricane season issued after early June, is for nine named storms, five hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes i.e. hurricanes with winds of 111 mph and greater. Additionally, the updated forecast Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which measures the combine strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, is 66.7. This would be the fourth lowest since 1995 and about 35.5% below the average of 103.5.

2014 Hurricane Season Updated Consensus Forecast.

2014 Hurricane Season Updated Consensus Forecast. (Credit Dale C. S. Destin)

The initial consensus forecast called for 10 named storms of which five were expected to become hurricanes and two major hurricanes.  Further, the consensus was for an ACE index of around 72. The ACE index as of the end of August was 19.7, about 19% of the average.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10; however, the peak for Antigua and the northeast Caribbean is August 21 and September 3 with a secondary peak on September 10. It certainly looks like we will safely see off the peak as there is nothing threatening between us and Africa at the moment.

Notwithstanding the slow nature of the season, please stay on guard, only half of the season has passed and it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year.

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