Weather Expectations from the Present Disturbance

28 10 2014

Dale C. S. Destin |



A weather disturbance has developed around 250 miles east of Antigua. It has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone (the generic term for depressions, storms and hurricanes) while it is in our area and a 30% chance of become a tropical cyclone after it moves away for the northeast Caribbean. However, this system is not expected to become a tropical cyclone as the winds aloft are not favourable for much further development. Notwithstanding, based on data available up to this morning, there are three weather scenarios looked at below with respect to the impact of the disturbance on Antigua and the northeast Leeward Islands.


The weather expected from this disturbance is: Cloudy to overcast skies with precipitation (rain and showers); thunderstorms are likely Tuesday night and Wednesday. Further rainfall accumulation of 10 to 25 mm is possible. The winds are going to swing to the southeast at 5 to 12 knots by tonight. The seas will get up to near two (2) metres or 6 feet tonight and will fall back to near 1.5 metres or 5 feet tomorrow Wednesday.

Best Case

For a best case scenario, the disturbance will get decimated by the unfavourable winds aloft. Thus, although cloudy skies will continue, not much more rainfall will take place.


Worst Case

For the worst case scenario, the disturbance could develop further and impact Antigua and Barbuda as a tropical depression and the rest of the northeast Caribbean as a minimal tropical storm (Isaias). This scenario is very unlikely; however, if this pans out, quick action would be required to protect life and property.



Changes will definitely take place with this disturbance over the next 24 hours; however, something close to the best case scenario is anticipated. Notwithstanding, this system will be monitored and if the chance of development into a tropical cyclone rises to above 50%, a tropical cyclone alert will be issued by the Antigua and Barbuda Met Service. Residents in the Leeward Islands should continue to monitor this system until it has dissipated or out of our area.

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