The Meaning of the Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast

Dale C. S. Destin |

Some persons are unhappy with the performance of the Antigua and Barbuda Met Service over the tracking of Tropical Cyclone Danny. One of the main issues is that the forecasts, beyond 24 hours,  had Danny passing over Antigua but instead it passed 60-70 miles south of the island.

So the question is did we, including the U.S. National Hurricane Center get it wrong? The simple answer is no. However, for you to be able to answer the question or make accusations, a better understanding to the meaning for the track forecast is required. I wrote a brief blog on tumblr explaining the inherent errors associated with the forecast; you are invited to have a read.

From the above graphic: the error for a 12-hour forecast (which takes effect 12 hours from the time issued)  is plus/minus 32 miles, for 24 hours it’s plus/minus 52 miles etc.