The Meaning of the Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast

25 08 2015

Dale C. S. Destin |

Some persons are unhappy with the performance of the Antigua and Barbuda Met Service over the tracking of Tropical Cyclone Danny. One of the main issues is that the forecasts, beyond 24 hours,  had Danny passing over Antigua but instead it passed 60-70 miles south of the island.

So the question is did we, including the U.S. National Hurricane Center get it wrong? The simple answer is no. However, for you to be able to answer the question or make accusations, a better understanding to the meaning for the track forecast is required. I wrote a brief blog on tumblr explaining the inherent errors associated with the forecast; you are invited to have a read.


From the above graphic: the error for a 12-hour forecast (which takes effect 12 hours from the time issued)  is plus/minus 32 miles, for 24 hours it’s plus/minus 52 miles etc.



3 responses

26 08 2015

How much rain fell with Danny?


26 08 2015
Dale Destin - Antigua Met Service

Around 0.5 inch


11 01 2017
Rashida Branecki

First off I would like to say superb blog! I had a quick question in which I’d like to ask if you don’t mind. I was interested to know how you center yourself and clear your mind before writing. I have had difficulty clearing my thoughts in getting my ideas out. I truly do take pleasure in writing but it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes are wasted simply just trying to figure out how to begin. Any ideas or hints? Appreciate it!|


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: