The Wettest September for Antigua in Over Two Decades

31 10 2017

Dale C. S. Destin|

September 2017 was the wettest for Antigua in over two decades. The month yielded 270.3 mm (10.64 in). This is almost doubled the monthly of 144.0 mm (5.67 in). The last time September was wetter was in 1995, when 373.1 mm (14.69 in) of rain fell.

September 2017 now ranks sixth wettest of all Septembers on record, dating back to 1928. Only 5 other Septembers have seen more rainfall.

SeptemberRainfallTotals_RankedSeptember 2017 is also the wettest month for Antigua in nearly five years. No month has been wetter since October 2012.

The probability of such a high rainfall total for September is 8.6%. This means that this total occurs once in every 11 to 12 years, on average.

The vast majority – over 75% of the rain was due to Hurricanes Irma, Jose and Maria. Maria was the single greatest rain maker with over 30% of the rainfall total for the month.

Interestingly, the last time September was wetter, we had two hurricanes – Luis and Marilyn of 1995. This time around we had three hurricanes.

September is the third wettest month on average behind October and November.

The rainfall total for the year, thus far, is running on the high side of the near normal range, notwithstanding the well above normal rainfall for September.

The forecast for October and the rest of the year is for near to above normal rainfall. Meanwhile, it is likely (55% chance) that the year (2017) will end with above normal rainfall – 1329.0 mm (52.3 in) with a 70 confidence of it being in the range of 1022.3 to 1690.6 mm (40.2 to 66.6 in). This would be the highest total since 2011.

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