2nd Wettest February In Years, Yet Less Than Usual Rainfall

1 04 2018

Dale C. S. Destin|

February 2018 was the second wettest since 2011, yet the rainfall total for the month was below the usual.  The island-average total was 35.8 mm (1.41 in); however, the usual amount for the month is 55.9 mm (2.20 in). Clearly, with only 64% of February’s rains falling, there was no positive impact on the drought situation being experienced.

Slight Meteorological Drought

Rainfall in inches for the past 24 months. Multiply by 25.4 to get mm. For records, the year given marks the start of the period.

The three-month period – December to February, upon which the assessment of the current intensity of the drought is based, had 198.6 mm (7.82 in). This puts the meteorological droughts at slight. However, with Potworks Dam about to go totally dry and the vegetation of the Island struggling, there is little doubt that other droughts are at moderate levels or worse. Of course, and thankfully, the full impact of the droughts is being masked by the presence of the desalination plants.

Drought Level is Slight

Based on the last set of rainfall outlooks, the news is not good for rainfall. Overall, below normal rainfall is most likely for the six-month period March to August. Thus, there is every reason to believe that the droughts will worsen. Even if the rainfall total turns out to be near average, it will not be enough, especially with respect to the hydrological drought, as the monthly evaporation rates significantly exceeds rainfall totals for most of the upcoming months. The chance of the droughts ending is slight – less than 30%.

Recall that the current drought started in October 2017 with the intensity at serious levels. On average, serious meteorological droughts last for close to a year, but not continuously at serious intensity. We have just passed the six-month mark in the drought. Will it go another six months? Unfortunately, the answer looks more like yes than no.

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