Updated Hurricane Season Forecast: Near Normal Season is Now Most Likely

12 06 2018

Dale C. S. Destin |

Good news: Our June updated forecast for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season is now available and it indicates that the hurricane season will most likely be near normal. The prediction is for an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 93, 11 named storms, 5 becoming hurricanes and 2 becoming major hurricanes.

Jun2018HurrucaneSeasonForecast

This forecast is relatively good news for us because, during a near normal season, there is a 33% chance of a named storm (tropical storm or hurricane) affecting, i.e. passing within 120 miles of, Antigua and Barbuda. By comparison, during an active season, the chance soars to 75%. Further, we have never had a major hurricane during a near normal season.

Chance of Anu Being Affected By TS

These new numbers represent notable decrease below those of the previous forecast. Previously, the forecast called for an ACE of 119, 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Current and projected cooler than normal sea surface temperatures, across the tropical North Atlantic, are mainly responsible for the downward trend in this year’s forecast hurricane season activity.

Recall that the ACE is the overall predictor of a hurricane season, it is a measure that is based on the total number of storms, their intensities and durations.

A typical season has an ACE index of 106, 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), based on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

If this forecast pans out, 2018 would be the least active since 2015. Notwithstanding, a season with activity second only to 2017, since 2005, cannot be ruled out.

According to other forecasts surveyed, the latest consensus is for an ACE of 96, 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Thus, our forecast is calling for similar activity; however, regardless of the forecast, you should always prepare well each season, as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year.

The Atlantic hurricane season started June 1 and will continue until November 30.

We will be updating this forecast by July 10.

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