Cooler Than Normal May for Antigua

30 06 2018

Dale Destin |

TempStmntGraphic_BelowNormalNotwithstanding being drier than usual, May was much cooler than normal, based on preliminary data record at the V.C. Bird International Airport (VCBIA), Antigua. The mean temperature of 26.4 °C (79.5 °F) was the lowest at VCBIA since 2012. Only six other Mays have been cooler on record dating back to 1969.

Further, at VCBIA, the mean daily minimum temperature (mean min) of 23.7 °C (74.7 °F), an indicator of night-time temperature, was well below normal. This is the lowest mean min for May since 1975 and only the third lowest on record dating back to 1969.

Additionally, the mean daily maximum temperature (mean max), an indicator of day-time temperature, was cooler than normal. The mean max of 29.3 °C (84.7 °F) tied with that of 2017 for the lowest temperature at VCBIA since 2014.

Looking deeper into the preliminary numbers at VCBIA, there was an above normal number of cold days (4) and cold nights (5). The most number of cold nights since 2008.

Clearly, the numbers indicated above, with respect to temperatures, differs from those recorded elsewhere across the island. We don’t have long enough datasets to speak definitively about temperatures for other areas of Antigua. However, it is believed that the rankings of temperatures are likely to be similar.

So, although other parts of Antigua had lower or higher temperatures, because temperatures are highly correlated, especially in a small island like ours, most if not all places had a cooler than normal May, relative to the given location. On average, some places across Antigua differ by as much as 5 °C (9 °F).

The reason for the cooler than normal temperatures is the same reason for the drought weather being experienced – cooler than normal sea surface temperatures across the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) Ocean. These temperatures are likely to remain cooler than normal for much of the rest of the year.

Tropical North Atlantic  (TNA) Index - Much Cooler Than Normal

Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) Index – a measure of the sea surface temperature between Africa and the Caribbean – much cooler than normal.

Based on record dating back to 1948, this past May was the coolest the TNA has been for the said month since 1989 and the sixth coolest on record.

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