Updated Hurricane Season Forecast: Near Normal Season Most Likely

12 08 2018

Dale C. S. Destin |

Good news! Our August updated forecast for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season is now available and it is indicating that a near normal season is most likely this year. The prediction is for an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 93, 11 named storms, 5 becoming hurricanes and 2 becoming major hurricanes.


Recall that a typical season has an ACE index of 106, 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), based on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Recall also that the ACE is the overall predictor of a hurricane season, it is a measure that represent the total number of storms, their intensities and durations.

According to other forecasts surveyed, the latest consensus is for an ACE of 88, 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Thus, our forecast is calling for similar activity; however, regardless of the forecast, you should always prepare well each season, as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year.

The Atlantic hurricane season started June 1 and will continue until November 30.

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