May’s Showers Ended Droughts

24 07 2019

Dale C. S. Destin |

The mini deluge at the end of May ended the droughts that were being experienced by Antigua, most of which started back in October 2017, after hurricanes Irma and Maria. May 2019 was the second wettest since 2011 and the 15th wettest on record dating back to 1928, with an island-average rainfall of 183.9 mm (7.24 in).

Following a wetter than normal May, June was drier than normal, yielding a meagre 26.1 mm (1.03 in) – only 38 percent of the usual total for the month. Meanwhile, July thus far is running below average, which is not a good sign.

Based on the last set of rainfall forecasts from regional and especially international sources, droughts are likely to return in the upcoming few months – August to October. However, things are looking less challenging for rainfall, as ENSO has returned to neutral state from the rainfall suppressing effects of El Nino.

Probabilistic multi-model ensenble forecast of rainfall for June-August 2019, based on 12 global models – 50 to 60% chance of below normal rainfall for Antigua and Barbuda

Recent projection is for a 50 percent chance of 2019 being drier than normal. This has happily dropped from 65 percent in May, likely, at least in part, due to the dissipation of El Nino. Further, around 1024 mm (41.0 in) of rain is forecast for the year, with a 70% chance of it falling in the range 741 to 1371 mm (29.2 to 54.0 in). The average annual rainfall is 1206.5 mm (47.5 in).

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July’s Update: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

15 07 2019

Dale C. S. Destin |

My updated forecast for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is out and it continues to call for above normal activity (an active season) being likely. The probability of this happening is up from the previous forecast from 45% to 54%. Thus, I am more confident of an above normal season.

It calls for an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 127 (up 13), 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

Forecast parameters with 70 percent confidence intervals in (parentheses), right

A typical season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), according to the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

According to other forecasts surveyed, the consensus is for an ACE of 112, 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes – above to near normal season. Thus, my forecast is calling for more activity.  However, regardless of the forecast, you should always prepare the same each season, as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year and or life.

The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and will conclude November 30.

The next update will be issued around August 10.

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