Driest April-May for Over 80 Years

6 06 2020

Dale C. S. Destin|

The combined rainfall total for April and May is near record-breaking low levels for Antigua. The total for this Apr-May: 36.8 mm (1.45 in), is the second lowest on record, dating back to 1928. Only Apr-May 1939, 81 years ago, had less rain – 27.9 mm (1.10 in).

Normally, these months would produce a combined rainfall of 189.2 mm (7.45 in). This means that the rainfall for Apr-May is less than 20% of the normal total, a deficit of over 80%.

Such low precipitation for Apr-May only happens once every 67 years, on average. In other words, there is only a 1.5% chance of this happening per year. Most Antiguans alive today have never witnessed such dryness before, for these months, and are very unlikely to witness it again.

Usually, Apr-May would account for 52% of the rainfall for Jan-May but instead it only accounted for less than 14%. Both April and May had similar extreme deficits. There have been only three other occasions when both months registered less than an inch of rain in the same year – 1973, 1939 and 1928.

It was not long ago that we were enjoying ample rainfall. First quarter rainfall, Jan-Mar, was above normal. However, this wonderful start to the year came to a screeching halt.

The horizontal (flat line) from Apr 1 to May 31 is indicative of the rapid downturn in rainfall as compared to the previous three months.

The difference in rainfall between Jan-Mar and Apr-May is the second greatest on record, indicative of the extremely sharp downturn in precipitation. We went from 237.7 mm (9.36 in) for Jan-Mar to 36.8 mm (1.45 in) for Apr-May, a decline of 200.9 mm (7.91 in). Normally, Jan-Mar and Apr-May produce 176.0 mm (6.93 in) and 189.2 mm (7.45 in) respectively.

Few of us alive today have ever seen this kind of change of rainfall, in Antigua. This kind sharp decline in rainfall from Jan-Mar to Apr-May only happens once every 100 years, on average. Only 1967 has had a greater decline, 240 mm (9.45 in), over the similar month periods.

This Apr-May is also the driest two-month period since May-Jun of 2001. It is also the 12th driest combined consecutive two months on record.

This past April and May were clearly extremely dry, and this dryness was magnified by the preceding wetter than normal first quarter.

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