Updated Hurricane Season Forecast – June Too Soon 2020

10 06 2020

Dale C. S. Destin|

My “June too soon” updated forecast for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is out, and it continues to call for an above normal season, which is likely to be hyperactive – well above normal.

The forecast predicts an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 202 (up 13 over the previous forecast), 21 named storms (up 2 to include Arthur and Bertha), 9 hurricanes (unchanged) and 5 major hurricanes (up 1).

To give a clearer picture of the forecast and the uncertianties, there is a 70% confidence of

  • 17 to 26 named storms;
  • 6 to 13 becoming hurricanes;
  • 2 to 7 becoming major hurricanes – Category 3 and higher and
  • 122 to 289 ACE.

If the forecast materialises, the ACE would be top 10 of all times. And if we use the ACE as an indicator of destructive potential, as some do, it means that the season’s destructive potential would also be top 10 of all times.

The main reasons for the above normal forecast are:

  1. the likely continuation of a warmer than usual tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and
  2. the potential for a cooler than normal eastern equatorial Pacific i.e. La Niña.

The greater the likelihood of these two things happening at the same time – August to October , the greater the chances for an above normal season.

TNA Index – very positive since about February 2020, indicative of warmer than usual sea surface temperatures across the region

According to other forecasts surveyed, the consensus is for an ACE of 151 (up 5), 17 named storms (unchanged), 9 hurricanes (up 1) and 4 major hurricanes (unchanged). These numbers represent an above normal season.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) based on 15 forecasting entities, including 268Weather.

Compared to my forecast, most other forecasts are also calling for an above normal season. However, compared with most other forecasts, my forecast is calling for a much more active season – 34% more.

Clearly, we have no control over the numbers for the season. But notwithstanding the forecast, you should always prepare the same each season, as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year and or life.

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