Updated Hurricane Season Forecast – August Look Out You Must, 2020

12 08 2020

Dale C. S. Destin |

My “August look out you must” updated forecast for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is out, and it continues to call for an above normal season, which is likely to be very active/hyperactive – well above normal.

My forecast calls for 26 named storms (up 3), including ArthurBerthaCristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias, with 10 becoming hurricanes (up 1) and 4 becoming major hurricanes (down 1). The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index is forecast to be 218 (up 18). Further, there is a 70% confidence of

  • 20 to 32 named storms;
  • 7 to 15 becoming hurricanes;
  • 3 to 7 becoming major hurricanes and
  • 141 to 305 ACE.

If the forecast materializes, the ACE would be top 8 of all times. And if we use the ACE as an indicator of destructive potential, as some do, it means that the season’s destructive potential would also be top 8 of all times.

To date, the season has produced an ACE of 23.1, more than twice the usual amount for January through July. A normal season produces 106 ACE. Also, there have been nine named storms to date, two of which became hurricanes – over five time the average number of hurricanes of 1.9 and four times the usual number of hurricanes of 0.2. So, it has been a record busy season. Never before in history have we seen this many Atlantic tropical storms this early in the year.

If the forecast materializes, the ACE would be top 8 of all times. And if we use the ACE as an indicator of destructive potential, as some do, it means that the season’s destructive potential would also be top 8 of all times.

To date, the season has produced an ACE of 23.1, more than twice the usual amount for January through July. A normal season produces 106 ACE. Also, there have been nine named storms to date, two of which became hurricanes – over five time the average number of hurricanes of 1.9 and four times the usual number of hurricanes of 0.2. So, it has been a record busy season. Never before in history have we seen this many Atlantic tropical storms this early in the year.

The main reasons for the above normal forecast are the continuation of a much warmer than usual tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and a developing La Niña.

Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) Index – Reds for warmer than usual and blues for the opposite.
Pacific Ocean Niño3.4 – Reds for warmer than usual and blues for the opposite

The greater the likelihood of these two things happening at the same time – August to October, the greater the chances for an above normal season.

There is one thing that may mitigate these developing near perfect conditions for tropical cyclone formation – more than usual Saharan Dust, streaming across the area. If this were to continue, the forecast numbers would be lower. Unfortunately, we have no skill in forecasting the dust beyond a week; hence, we do not know if the dust will continue beyond August and deep into the peak of the months – August to October.

Compared to my forecast, most other forecasts continue to call for an above normal season. However, compared with most other forecasts, my forecast is calling for a much more active season – 34% more, on average.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) based on 15 forecasting entities, including 268Weather.

Clearly, we have no control over the numbers for the season. But notwithstanding the forecast, you should always prepare the same each season, as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year and or life.

This is my last forecast for this hurricane season. My first forecast for the 2021 season will be available around April 10. All the best for the rest of this 2020 season.

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One response

1 09 2020
Greg

As of September 1st total ACE index seems low considering the record number of named storms to date.
I’ll take record numbers of weak named storms over fewer strong storms, especially if having many weak storms help to cool the global warming better.

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