Post-Hurricane Season – December

19 12 2020

Dale C. S. Destin|

Named tropical cyclones (tropical storms or hurricanes) during December are virtually unheard of for Antigua and Barbuda. However, in 2007, Tropical Storm Olga came close and affected us. Its centre passed around 39 and 78 miles north of Barbuda and Antigua respectively – at least brushing our islands. Its impact was minimal.

Tropical Storm Olga – December 11, 2007. Credit Wikipedia.

Olga went on to become the most destructive and deadly tropical cyclone originating in December. The storm went on to made landfall on Puerto Rico and Hispaniola with peak sustained winds of 95 km/h (60 mph). It killed at least 40 people and caused US$45 million in damage across the Greater Antilles.

In the history of Atlantic named tropical cyclones, which dates back to 1851, only 16 have had their origin in December, according to NOAA. Of the 16, 5 (31 percent) were hurricanes.

All 16 tropical storms and hurricanes originating in December – 1851 to 2019

Of the 16 total December tropical storms and hurricanes, four impacted the Caribbean i.e. passing within 120 miles of the region. The last to do so was Olga. Based on the climate period 1981-2010, the chance of a storm impacting Antigua is about 3 percent, while the chance of the Caribbean being impacted is about 9.5 percent.

The strongest tropical cyclone owing its origin to December is Alice of 1954 – a Category 1 hurricane. Alice formed in late December and crossed over to January 1955 and impacted Antigua and the rest of the Leeward Islands with Category 1 winds. It eventually reached peak sustained winds of 150 km/h (90 mph) about 100-130 miles northeast of Barbuda. Alice is known to be the only post-season hurricane (forming in December, January or February) to impact the Caribbean.

The last Atlantic storm to have its origin in December is an unnamed subtropical storm of 2013. It formed over the northern eastern Atlantic, near the Azores. It had peak sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph). Lost of life and damage caused by it were nil.

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