June Updated Forecast for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

19 06 2021

Dale C. S. Destin |

The numbers for this hurricane season are likely to be very high once again. My updated forecast for the 2021 season is out, and it continues to call for an above normal season being likely. The confidence of an above normal season has grown from 69 to 78%. It is also possible that the season could be super hyperactive with more than 19 named storms likely.

The prediction is still for 22 named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), with a 70 percent confidence or high confidence of the number ranging between 17 to 28. It is also likely–56 percent chance (down 2), that the number of named storms will exceed 19 and be in the top 10 percentile of the historical record, dating back to 1851.

My forecast also calls for an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 186 (up 7) with a high confidence of the range being 112 to 286. There is also a 44 percent chance (up 9) of the ACE index exceeding 223. Also predicted are 9 hurricanes (down 1) with a 70 percent confidence of  the total being 6 to 13, and 5 major hurricanes (up 1) with high confidence of 2 to 7.

If this forecast pans out, this season would be the most active since 2017, in terms of ACE, and the 10th most active on record dating back to 1851. It would also be ranked third for the highest number of named storms and tied for 11th and 17th for the most hurricanes and major hurricanes respectively.

The main reasons for the above normal forecasts are the likely above normal sea surface temperatures across the tropical North Atlantic and a weak La Niño and or cold-neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during August to October–the peak of the hurricane season.

A typical season, based on the standard climate period 1991-2020, has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), according to the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

This forecast is updated monthly around the 15th each month until August. The next update will be issued around July 15.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and will conclude on November 30. Be prepared! Please share this blog, if you found it useful and follow me for more on the ongoing hurricane season, which unfortunately could be another wild one, and for all things weather and climate – TwitterFacebook and Instagram.


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