June’s Update: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Dale C. S. Destin|

My updated forecast for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is out and it continues to call for above normal activity (an active season) being most likely. The probability of this happening is virtually unchanged from the previous forecast – 45%.

It calls for an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 114 (up 1), 13 named storms (up 1), 6 hurricanes (down 1) and 3 major hurricanes (up 1). Another way of interpreting my forecast is that it is calling for an above to near normal season – 80% probability.

Forecast parameters with 70 percent confidence intervals in (parentheses), right

A typical season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), according to the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

According to other forecasts surveyed, the consensus is for an ACE of 114, 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes – above to near normal season, which is now almost identical to my forecast. However, regardless of the forecast, you should always prepare the same each season, as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year and or life.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and concludes November 30.

The next update will be issued around July 10.

Please share this blog, if you found it useful and follow me for more on the upcoming hurricane season and all things weather and climate – Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

May’s Update: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Dale C. S. Destin |

Our updated forecast for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is out and it continues to call for above normal activity (an active season) being most likely. However, the probability of this happening has dropped a bit from 49% to 45% – previous forecast. It calls for an accumulated energy (ACE) index of 113 (down 11), 12 named storms (down 1), 7 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes (down 1).

A typical season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), according to the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

According to other forecasts surveyed, the consensus is for an ACE of 102, 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes – near to above normal season. This is consistent with my forecast. However, regardless of the forecast, you should always prepare the same each season as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year and or life.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and concludes November 30.

The next update will be issued around June 10.

Please share this blog, if you found it useful and follow me for more on the upcoming hurricane season and all things weather and climate – Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

Early Forecasts for 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Dale C. S. Destin |

Our early season forecast for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is out and it calls for above normal activity (an active season) being most likely. It calls for an accumulated energy (ACE) index of 124, 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

A typical season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), according to the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, although above normal, did not have any severe impact on the Caribbean, except for Cuba where Hurricane Michael was a factor and to a lesser extend Barbados where Tropical Storm Kirk caused flooding. The season had 15 named storms, 8 became hurricanes – winds of at least 119 km/h or 74 miles per hour, and 2 became major hurricanes.

If this forecast pans out, this season would have similar activity to that of the 2018 season.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and concludes on November 30.

We will be providing monthly updates to the forecast until August. The first update will be issued around May 10.

According to other forecasts surveyed, the consensus is for an ACE of 99, 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes – near normal season. Thus, our forecast is generally calling for higher activity than most. However, regardless of the forecast, you should always prepare the same each season as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year and or life.

Please share this blog, if you found it useful and follow me for more on the upcoming hurricane season and all things weather and climate – Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.