Record-breaking Dry 12 Months

11 08 2022

Dale C. S. Destin |

The deficit in rainfall over the last 12 months ending July was record-breaking. August  2021 to July 2022 is now the driest such period on record, in a series dating back to 1928. The rainfall total of 727.2 mm (28.63 in) broke the previous record of 731.0 mm (28.78 in) measured over a similar period – August 1973 to July 1974, nearly 50 years ago.

During the last 12-month episode of drought, the six months ending January 2022 was the driest such half-year on record with 378.7 mm (14.91 in). Further, the last quarter of 2021, October to December (OND), had a record low rainfall of 127.3 mm (5.01 in). This displaced the previous OND record of 143.0 mm (5.63 in) observed in 1983, that fateful year in which we were forced to import water from Dominica, due to severe drought.

The rainfall total for the past 12 months was down an unprecedented 37 percent. This would have been much worse, if not for near normal rainfall in July of 99.3 mm (3.91 in), which is equivalent to 101 percent of the month’s average of  98.0 mm (3.86 in). The August-July year averages 1150.7 mm (45.3 in), which is similar to the annual average.

Since the deluge of November 2020, rainfall has been as scarce as gold. The rainfall for the past 20 months – December 2020 to July 2022, is the second lowest for such a period with 1082.8 mm (42.63 in). This is even less than the annual 12-month total and represents a deficit of over 38 percent. Only the 20-month period ending July 2016 was drier. Relative to all 20-month periods on record, the last 20 months rank seventh.

Happily, the impacts of the very harsh dry conditions continue to be masked by the adaptation measure of building more and more reverse osmosis (RO) plants to extract potable water from the ocean. If not for the plants, the socio-economic situation would be quite desperate. And to say that without the RO plants the country would have to be closed, leading to mass migration, is not hyperbolic.

According to the United Nations: “Water is at the core of sustainable development and is critical for socio-economic development, energy and food production, healthy ecosystems and for human survival itself. Water is also at the heart of adaptation to climate change, serving as the crucial link between society and the environment.”

Our poster child for droughts, Potworks Reservoir, remains dry land. Recall that in addition to meteorological droughts, there are also agriculturalhydrologicalecological and socio-economic droughts, which are currently, at varying intensities.

There is likely a number of factors responsible for the dryness; however, the main one seems to be the consistent stream of dry and dusty air from the Sahara Desert.

Examination of recent models reveals that there is no sustainable end to this dry weather. At best, rainfall for the rest of the year will be near normal, which will not erase the massive, accumulated deficit.

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Record-Breaking Dry 19 Months for Antigua

13 07 2022

Dale C. S. Destin |

The past 19 months is the driest such period on record for Antigua, dating back to at least 1928. Since the deluge of November 2020, December 2020 to June 2022 has yielded only a meagre 983.5 mm (38.72 in), for the island-average rainfall. This broke the record set for a similar period, December 2014 to June 2016, of 994.4 mm (39.15 in), which was also the record lowest for any consecutive 19 months.

Usually, 19 months ending June averages 1656.3 mm (65.21 in). This means that since December 2020 only 59 percent of the normal amount of rain fell. The 19-month total of 983.5 mm is less than that for 17 full years. The rainfall total for the last 19 months was less than what usually falls in 12 months – annually.

Rainfall total for Dec 2020-Jun 2022 – 983.5 mm (38.72 in) vs the normal total for the same period – 1656.3 mm (65.21 in). December 2020 to June 2022 is the driest 19 months on record.

Such an extremely low rainfall total for the last 19 months has a less than a 1 percent chance of occurring – 0.8 percent.  This translates to the dryness for December 2020 to June 2022 having a return period of 1-in-125 years, on average. It is unlikely that anyone alive has seen this kind of scant rainfall before and there is a less than 10 percent chance of a repeat in the next 13 years.

The last time we saw such dryness we were in the midst of the Great Drought of 2013-2016. At no time during that dearth of rainfall was the dryness this intense for any successive 19 months.

A lot of the dryness seems largely due to dry and dusty air from the Sahara Desert and or cooler than normal sea surface temperatures across the tropical North Atlantic Ocean. The high number of tropical cyclones in 2021 likely contributed, by steering clear of the area and pulling moisture away from the islands.

The dryness has been quite robust. Not only records were set for the last 19 months but also for the last 18, 17, 16 and 15 months respectively. It is also likely that more records will fall in the coming months.

As forecast, it was a drier than normal dry season for Antigua. The period January to June was the 20th driest in a series going back to 1928. The continued below normal rainfall means that drought continues to reign with no predictable end in sight.

With the rainfall at or near record-low levels over the past 19 months, one can appreciate the absence of virtually ALL water from surface catchments and the significant drop in groundwater. Potworks Reservoir, our billion-gallon surface catchment, has been totally dry since late October 2021. If not for water from the increasing number of reverse osmosis plants, “crapo would be smoking our pipes”, at the very least. And for those who say he is smoking our pipes, without the plants, it would be exponentially worse, in unimaginable ways.

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Drought-Busting, Lenny-Type Rainfall Impacted Antigua

10 11 2020

Dale C. S. Destin|

A newly formed tropical disturbance caused drought-busting, Lenny-type rainfall across parts of Antigua. The system dumped over 373 mm (over 14 inches) across parts of the country, over the last 24 hours.

Of course, with this extreme rainfall, there was massive flooding in some areas. The impact is unfolding with images of almost submerged and abandoned vehicles, flooded businesses and homes and damaged roads.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-10.png
Last Night: Flooding at Woods, St. John’s, Antigua
Today: Same area as above (Woods, St. John’s, Antigua) but after the runoff.

This rainfall event was quite extreme, if not in amount, certainly with respect to intensity. In 24 hours, two-and-a-half times the month’s total rainfall fell, yes 250% November’s average in less than 24 hours, in some places. The islands average rainfall for November is 149.4 mm (5.88 inches).

The maximum 6-hour rainfall was higher than the average for most months. We measured up to 156 mm (6.14 inches) in six-hours. This is more rainfall than we would have had from most tropical cyclones that have impacted the island. The max six-hour rainfall on record at the Airport is 175.2 mm (6.90 inches); the max for November for the same location is 158.7 mm (6.25 inches).

In an hour yesterday, we measured peak rainfall total of 97 mm (3.82 inches), at the University of the West Indies – Five Islands Campus. At the Airport, the record of 56.4 mm (2.22 inches) was broken by the 77.9 mm (3.07 inches) measured between 4 and 5 pm, yesterday.

Drilling down even deeper, there were occasions when the ten-minute rainfall total reached close to 25 mm (1 inch). This is almost unimaginable to think that in a space of 10 minutes, some areas would have had nearly an inch of rainfall.

Putting the rainfall total into further perspective, the one-day-total, for some areas, for this event is higher than the one-day-total from Lenny recorded at the Airport. Lenny’s maximum one-day total was 241 mm (9.49 inches), at the Airport, as compared to over 320 mm (over 12.6 inches) from this event, at Five islands.

More rain is in the forecast with another 100 to 200 mm (4 to 8 inches) possible in the next 72 hours. This means more moderate to major flooding is likely.

Potential impacts include:

  • loss of life and injuries;
  • widespread financial losses;
  • disruption to transportation;
  • soil erosion;
  • disruption of schools;
  • damage to dams, embankment, irrigation and drainage facilities;
  • decrease in storage capacity of reservoir due to high sediment rate;
  • contamination of potable water;
  • crop and animal losses;
  • environmental degradation;
  • disruption to communication and
  • damage to infrastructure. 

Stay alert and prepared. If or when a flash flood warning is issued, it means that, at least, moderate or worse flooding is imminent or occurring in the warned area. Thus, residents in these areas should move to higher ground immediately.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway, as the underlying road may have washed away, magnifying the potential for harm. A flash flood watch means to prepare for the possibility of warning conditions.

Flooding across portions of Bolans, Antigua

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Driest April for Antigua in Over Two Generations

1 05 2020

Dale C. S. Destin|

Not since 1944 has an April been drier for Antigua than April 2020. It was the third driest April on record – the driest in 76 years or well over two generations. The last time April was drier, V. C. Bird Snr was president of the Antigua Trades and Labour Union and World War II was still raging.

Potworks Dam, May 1, 2020. Picture courtesy Karen Corbin – Humane Society

The island average for the month is 16.1 mm (0.63 in). Only April 1944, with 5.9 mm (0.23 in) and 1939, with 8.4 mm (0.33 in), have been drier in nearly 100 years.

The total for the month represents only 19% of the normal total of 85.6 mm (3.37 in) – a deficit of 81%, based on the current climatological standard period of 1981-2010.

Such a low rainfall total is very rare for April. How rare? It has only around a 4% chance of occurring or once every 25 years on average, based on record: 1928-2019. This would suggest that we were around 50 years overdue for such a parched April.

The reason for us going so many years overdue for such a near record low total is likely due to “positive” climate change. Rainfall for April has been on a steady wetting increase, rising from an average of 53.1 mm (2.09 in) for the period 1928-1957 to 80.8 mm (3.18 in) for the period 1990-2019.

So, if you were to segment the data, there is around an 11% chance of getting 16.1 mm during the years 1928-1957, as compared to just a 0.6% chance for the period 1990-2019. In other words, our current climate for April is over 18 times less likely to produce such a low rainfall total as compared to the past climate of 1928-1957.

Now, based on the segmented data, the return period for April’s rainfall of 16.1 mm is once every 9 years on average for the past climate. However, the return period for the same value in the current climate is once every 167 years on average. Hence, most persons alive along with their grand and great grand children are unlikely to see a similar or drier April in Antigua.

Compared to other months, this April is the driest since June 2018. And of all the 1108 months on record dating back to 1928, it ranks as the 23rd driest. This puts it in the top 2% of all time driest months.

Notwithstanding the miniscule rainfall for April, the rainfall for the year, thus far, is near normal.  However, if not for a wetter than normal first quarter, the situation would be much more dire.

The reason for the absentee rainfall for April looks to be due to a switch from a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to a negative NAO. This is manifest in the swing from above normal pressure over the subtropical North Atlantic to below normal pressure. This switch or swing resulted in a reduction of moist unstable air flowing across the area and depositing rainfall.

The pressure over our islands also went from neutral, over the period January-March 2020, to above normal for April. Such a configuration of the pressure would usually also inhibit rainfall, which was evident.

April 2020 was a remarkably dry month. One that most of us have never seen and will likely never see again – happily.

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February 2020 to be Among the Wettest on Record

17 02 2020

Dale C. S. Destin

This February is on track to becoming one of the wettest on record for Antigua. Thus far, it is the wettest February, at the V. C. Bird International Airport (VCBIA) since 2005 and the wettest for Antigua since 2004.

It has been the wettest first two weeks of February, at the VCBIA, since 2002. The rainfall total of 55 mm (2.17 in), at the end of February 14, at the Airport, is well above normal – in the top 10 percentile on record dating back to 1962. It is more than twice the average – 25.4 mm (1.0 in), for the same period and the fourth wettest on record. Only three other times February 1-14 has been wetter, at VCBIA: 1997 – 66 mm (2.60 in), 1982 – 59.7 mm (2.35 in) and 2002 – 56.8 mm (2.24 in).

Heavy rainfall days (days with 10 mm – 0.40 in, or more) are fairly rare for February, at the Airport. There was none since 2009; however, already for this Feberuary, there have been three recorded. This ties with 2005, 1991, 1982, 1981 and 1976 February for the most number of heavy rainfall days, at VCBIA. The three heavy rainfall days tie with those of February 2005, 1991, 1982, 1981 and 1976. This record will likely be broken by the end of the month.

There is no daily breakdown of the island-average rainfall; however, based on the fact that the current island-average total of 59.9 mm (2.36 in) is already the most since 2004, and the average for the month is 55.9 mm (2.20 in), it is highly likely that the rainfall for the first two weeks of February was also well above normal for the island.

The cause of our wetter than usual February weather is the positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The NAO is a large-scale seesaw in atmospheric pressure between the subtropical (Atlantic) high and the polar low.

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The positive NAO index occurs when the subtropical high is higher (stronger) than usual and the polar low is deeper (lower) than usual. When this happens, it causes the winds across the area to be higher than usual (fresh to strong), which in turn destabilises the lower atmosphere by way of mixing and convergence – resulting in above normal rainfall for Antigua and likely other nearby islands.

When the NAO is above normal, the mean rainfall for Antigua for February is 62.7 mm (2.47 in) plus or minus 11.4 mm (0.45 in). These numbers are based on a 95% confidence interval and a probability value (p-value) of 0.009.

A positive NAO index also has implications for other places. For example, the United Kingdom, Ireland and northern Europe get more and stronger winter storms when the NAO index is positive, which have been happening. Thus far, there have been four named winter storms to significantly impact the area, the last being Storm Dennis.

The NAO index is forecast to remain above normal; hence, wetter than usual conditions are expected to continue. Unfortunately, the NAO index is not predictable beyond two weeks; thus, only short-range forecasting can be done using it as a predictor. Also, for some other months, a positive index is associated with below normal rainfall.

The wettest February for the VCBIA and Antigua, on record dating back to 1928, is 1982 with 110.5 mm (4.35 in) and 130.8 mm (5.15 in) respectively. The wettest February 1-14 at the VCBIA is 1997 with 66 mm (2.60 in).  

The average rainfall totals for February for the VCBIA and Antigua are 44.9 mm (1.77 in) and 55.9 mm (2.20 in) respectively. This February could be among the top three wettest on record.

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Potworks Dam Back Online!

23 12 2019

Dale C. S. Destin|

Potworks Dam, Antigua’s largest water catchment, is back online after being offline from around middle of last month, for the fourth time this year. The billion-gallon catchment water levels rose above extraction levels during the rains of late November and early December allowing for it to be reconnected to country’s water lines, to supply potable water.

Ian Lewis, Manager – Antigua Public Utilities Authority (APUA) Water Business Unit

For the year, the Dam first fell below extraction levels back in April but was topped up in late May. It again went below extraction levels in September but was topped up later that month. And again, it fell below extraction levels around mid-November but was partially recharged late November/early December; hence the reason why it is back online.

There is now a slight meteorological drought, which started in October. Based on the latest forecasts, over the upcoming months, it is expected to persist or worsen. Prior to this drought, there was a severe drought from October 2017 to April 2019 – 19 month long.

For the month of November, the catchment area – Bethesda Village, received a little over 100 mm (over 4 in) of rainfall. This is below normal but twice the total for October – 54.9 mm (2.16 in), which is well below normal 150-175 mm (6-7 in). Already, for December, the area has had over 100 mm (over 4 in), which is more than usual.

With Potworks back above extraction levels along with other smaller catchments, water rationing has been terminated, according to the Antigua Public Utility Authority (APUA), the water authority. However, there remains a hydrological drought of, at least, moderate intensity, with no end in sight.

Potworks Dam is less than a quarter full (over three-quarters empty). It has around 200,000 million gallons compared to a capacity of a billion gallons. It has been over five years since it reached capacity; being close to empty or empty has been the norm since 2014.

Potworks Dam – December 4, 2019. Pic courtesy Karen Corbin – Antigua Humane Society

According to APUA, at the usual rate of extraction, the Dam has two to three months of water supply. This means that it will be a part of the country’s water mix until March – the heart of the dry season. Thus, there is not enough surface water to last through the dry season – January to June 2020.

Recharge of catchments is very unlikely during the dry season. This is especially so for this coming dry season, as the outlook is for below normal rainfall being most likely. Hence, Potworks is expected to come offline again by March and will likely remain offline from then until the wetter portion of the wet season – August to November.

Precipitation forecast for January-March 2020, based on 12 global models – 40 to 50% chance of below normal rainfall for Antigua and the rest of the Eastern Caribbean
The outlook shows 45% chance of below normal rainfall for Antigua and the northeast Caribbean for March to May 2020

Given the season and the forecast, a return to water rationing is almost inevitable in about three months, when Potworks Dam is expected to be offline again. Water conservation and efficiency cannot be over encouraged. Let us treat water like the scarce but precious commodity that it is and make every drop count. Think rain!

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May’s Showers Ended Droughts

24 07 2019

Dale C. S. Destin |

The mini deluge at the end of May ended the droughts that were being experienced by Antigua, most of which started back in October 2017, after hurricanes Irma and Maria. May 2019 was the second wettest since 2011 and the 15th wettest on record dating back to 1928, with an island-average rainfall of 183.9 mm (7.24 in).

Following a wetter than normal May, June was drier than normal, yielding a meagre 26.1 mm (1.03 in) – only 38 percent of the usual total for the month. Meanwhile, July thus far is running below average, which is not a good sign.

Based on the last set of rainfall forecasts from regional and especially international sources, droughts are likely to return in the upcoming few months – August to October. However, things are looking less challenging for rainfall, as ENSO has returned to neutral state from the rainfall suppressing effects of El Nino.

Probabilistic multi-model ensenble forecast of rainfall for June-August 2019, based on 12 global models – 50 to 60% chance of below normal rainfall for Antigua and Barbuda

Recent projection is for a 50 percent chance of 2019 being drier than normal. This has happily dropped from 65 percent in May, likely, at least in part, due to the dissipation of El Nino. Further, around 1024 mm (41.0 in) of rain is forecast for the year, with a 70% chance of it falling in the range 741 to 1371 mm (29.2 to 54.0 in). The average annual rainfall is 1206.5 mm (47.5 in).

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Temporary Interruption to Dry Weather; Droughts Eased

29 04 2019

Dale C. S. Destin |

Drought Level is Slight

A drier than normal start to the year continues across Antigua; however, there was a temporary interruption – March turned out wet, relatively. The month had 59.6 mm (2.35 in), the most for March since 2013. Most of the rain fell on the 29 March – over 52%, otherwise the story for the month would have been quite different. The rainfall for March was 15% more that usual; notwithstanding, droughts continue, although eased a bit.

The last three-month period – January to March, upon which the assessment of the current intensity of the drought is based, was below normal. The period had 127.5 mm (5.02 in), while the normal amount of rainfall is 176.0 mm (6.93 in).

Rainfall totals for the past 24 months plus normals, anomalies and records

We remain in a severe meteorological drought, the worst category on our drought scale. However, at the moment, the current intensity is slight, down from moderate. Recall that the overall description of the drought is based on the worst intensity achieved during its lifetime; however, over time, the intensity will fluctuate. Severe intensities were observed May-July and June-August of last year.

Potworks Dam, our billion-gallon surface catchment, has fallen below extraction levels – not potable water is currently available from the Dam. Water rationing is imminent but has been delayed by the presence of a number of desal plants operating in the country.  

Potworks Dam as of April 2, 2019 – drying up; picture courtesy Karen Corbin of the Humane Society

The eighteen-month period – October 2017 to March 2019, the duration of the drought thus far, is deemed severely dry. The total for the period of 1170.9 mm (46.10 in) is the fourth lowest on record, for such a period, dating back to 1928. This interval normally gets 1781.3 mm (70.13 in), which means a rainfall deficit of near 34% – close to one-third of the usual rain was absent.

Based on the last set of rainfall forecasts from regional and especially international sources, the news remains discouraging for rainfall. Overall, below normal rainfall is likely for the next six months – May to October 2019. Thus, there is every reason to believe that the droughts will not only continue but reintensify. The chance of the droughts ending is, at the very most, 30% or low.

Probabilistic multi-model ensemble forecast of rainfall for May-July 2019, based on 12 global models – 70 to 80% chance of below normal rainfall for Antigua and Barbuda

Early projections have us with a 60 chance of being drier than normal for the year, with a 45% chance of the rainfall total being in the bottom 20th percentile of all years. Further, around 977 mm (38.5 in) of rain is forecast for 2019, with a 70% chance it falling in the range 699 to 1321 mm (27.5 to 52.0 in).  

On average, our severe meteorological droughts last for around 16 months, but not continuously at severe intensity. At current, the drought is in its 19th month; the longest such drought on record lasted 38 months – Jul 2013 to August 2016.

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A Major Swell Event to Impact the Caribbean This Week

21 01 2019

A major swell event is forecast to impact much of the Caribbean this week. Swells are likely to exceed 2.5 metres (8 ft) and occasionally exceeding 3 metres (10 ft), coming out of the north. These swells will result in dangerous surfs for beachgoers; hence, advisories and or warnings will be required.

Spacial Distribution of Swells - Thu 22 Jan 2019

Spacial Distribution of Swells – Thu 24 Jan 2019. Grapic Courtesy windy.com

The swell event will be generated by gale-force/storm-force winds, from a powerful low-pressure system, making its way across the northern North Atlantic. This is the same system that dumped an obscene amount of snow – over 660 mm (26 in) across parts the United States.  Obviously, none of this weather will reach the Caribbean but the sea swells will.

The swells in and of themselves are not the real concern. The greater concern is the large breaking swells or high surfs that these swells will caused when they reach the shorelines across the region. Such long period swells can result in surfs as high as twice their heights i.e. up to 6 metres (20 ft).

High Surf - Fort James, Antigua

High Surf – Fort James, Antigua

The eventual height of the surfs is largely dependent on the bathymetry (shape and depth) of the near shore coastal areas they interact with. Generally, the shallower the near shore areas, the higher the surfs. The greatest impact will be on the north-facing beaches and coastlines.

The event has started across the Bahamas and will reach the western Caribbean by tomorrow – Tuesday. It will then spread to the Eastern Caribbean Wednesday, including Antigua and Barbuda, and the southern Caribbean on Thursday. Moderate swells and associated high surfs are also forecast to reach the coastline of northeast South America, including the Guyanas on Friday.

These high surfs will have the potential impact of injuries or loss of life, beach closures and financial losses. Impacts could also include:

  • disruption to potable water from desalination;
  • salt water intrusion;
  • flooding of low-lying coastal roads;
  • beach erosion;
  • disruptions to near shore marine recreation and businesses;
  • damage to coral reefs and
  • disruptions of marine transportation.

These swells and surfs could result in strong rip currents that can carry even the strongest swimmers out to sea. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and near structures such as groins, jetties and piers.

If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don`t swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

There is also concern for those who visit non-beach coastal areas. High surfs can knock spectators off exposed rocks and jetties. Those who rock fish need to pay attention and not expose themselves to this hazard. Breaking waves may occasionally impact harbours making navigating the harbour channel dangerous.

With this event happening near a full supermoon, high tides will be higher than usual; hence, coastal flooding and erosion are more likely than usual. Coastal flooding from the sea is largely depended on high tides, onshore wind and swell actions.

The potential impacts listed above are just that – potential/possible impacts. I am not saying that they will all definitely happen, but conditions could result in such and past similar swell events have caused such.

If an high advisory is issued for an area – be extremely cautious; bathe only where lifeguards are present. If a high surf warning is issued – do not enter the water. Relatively safe conditions are likely on the opposite or southern sides of the islands.

Swells and associated surfs will peak across the Bahamas on Wednesday; the Eastern Caribbean on Thursday; the southern Caribbean Friday and northeast South America on Saturday.

In addition, to concerns for those using the beaches and coastlines, there are concerns for mariners of the northern islands, as expected strong winds will, among other things, cause hazardous seas. For more, see my blog – Strong Winds and Hazardous Seas to Impact Parts of the Caribbean, coming out tomorrow.





Wetter Than Normal November Eases Drought to Slight

31 12 2018

Dale C. S. Destin |

DroughtMeterNovember’s rainfall was higher than usual – 135% of the average for the month. The total of 204 mm (8.03 in) makes this November the 21 wettest on record. The very welcome rainfall has ease the meteorological drought to slight levels and have also eased or eliminated other droughts.

Over 95% of the rainfall for November fell during the first 15 days of the month, making it the second wettest such period on record. The rainfall was caused by a cold front and a series of troughs.

The last three-month period – September to November, upon which the assessment of the current intensity of the drought is based, was slight dry. Notwithstanding a wetter than normal November, the last three months, as a time interval, had below normal rainfall with 370.6 mm (14.59 in) recorded. This is the lowest since 2015 and the second lowest since 2009.

RainfallAccuForPast24Months

Rainfall for the past 24 months for varying time intervals compared to the normal/average and records

We remain in a severe meteorological drought, the worst category on our drought scale. However, at the moment, the current intensity is slight. Recall that the overall description of the drought is based on the worst intensity achieve during its lifetime; however, over time, the intensity will fluctuate. Last month the intensity was at serious levels.

Potworks Dam, with a billion-gallon capacity, has moved from near totally dry to being one-third full, two-third empty – depending on your perspective. The water levels have gone above extraction height and I am advised that the same is true for the other smaller catchments.

Potworks Dams Nov13_2018_KarenCarbin

Potworks Dam – Nov 13, 2018. Complements Karen Corbin of the Humane Society

Potable water has become more readily available and water rationing has apparently cease, for now. This is indicative of huge dent November’s rainfall made on the droughts.

The fourteen-month period – October 2017 to November 2018, the duration of the drought thus far, is deemed severely dry. The total for the last 14 months of 977.6 mm (38.49 in) is the second lowest since 2001 – only the similar period October 2014 to November 2015 was drier. October of one year to November of the next normally gets 1514.6 mm (59.63 in), which means that there is a large rainfall deficit of around 35% – more than one-third of the usual rain did not fall.

Based on the last set of rainfall forecasts from regional and especially international sources, the news is discouraging with respect to rainfall. Overall, below normal rainfall is most likely for the next six months – January to June 2019, with relatively high confidence that the period January to March 2019 will be drier than normal – possibly well below normal. Thus, there is every reason to believe that the droughts will continue and likely reintensify. The chance of the droughts ending is, at most 30% or low.

MultimodelEnsembleRainfall_JFM_2019

Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast of Rainfall For Jan-Mar 2019, based on 12 global model

On average, our severe meteorological droughts last for around 16 months, but not continuously at severe intensity. At current, the drought is in its 15th month; the longest such drought on record lasted 38 months – Jul 2013 to August 2016.

I now expected 2018 to be among the top 10 direst years on record with the island-average total less than 900 mm or less than 35 inches. We normally get 1206.5 mm or 47.5 inches.

AccumulationJan_Dec2018

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All the best for 2019!





Near Normal Rainfall for September for Antigua, Droughts Eased Slightly

29 10 2018

Dale C. S. Destin |

SevereToSeriousThe rainfall for September was near normal for the second month in a row. The total of 107.2 mm (4.22 in) makes September the wettest month for the year, thus far; however, no month has yet had more than near normal. Notwithstanding, the consecutive months of near normal rainfall has led to the droughts easing slightly.

The total rainfall for the month – 107.2 mm was 74% of what normally falls – 144.0 mm (5.67 in). This was not very helpful, given the severe rainfall deficit we are experiencing.

The last three-month period – July to September, upon which the assessment of the current intensity of the drought is based, was seriously dry. In the last three months, only 249.7 mm (9.83 in) of rain fell. This is the 12th driest such period on record dating back to 1928.

Sep2018

Cumulatively, July, August and September normally yield 358.1 mm (14.1 in) of rain; however, a huge 30% of it did not fall. This means that we remain in a severe meteorological drought, the worst category on our drought scale.

So, overall, we remain in a severe drought that is currently at serious intensity. There has been a slight ease from last month – but nothing to shout about.  Recall that the overall description of the drought is based on the worst intensity achieve during its lifetime; however, over time, the intensity will fluctuate.

Potworks Dam, Sep 29, 2018. Courtesy Veronica Yearwood - APUA

Potworks Dam, Sep 29, 2018. Courtesy Veronica Yearwood – APUA

Potworks Dam, with a billion-gallon capacity, has been totally dry for a few months now; however, it got in some water toward the end of August. Notwithstanding, the water levels remains well below extraction level and I am advised that the same is true for the other smaller catchments. These are indicative of the fact that the droughts are at very impactful levels.

The full brunt of the droughts continues to be masked by the presence of the desalination plants, which are virtually still the only source for potable water in the country. Notwithstanding, many impacts are starting to break through. Potable water is still being rationed; places have been left without water for days to weeks, at a time, especially when the sea is stirred up by swells, which negatively impacts the desalination process.

The twelve-month period – October 2017 to September 2018, the duration of the drought thus far, is deemed severely dry. The total for the last eleven months of 714.2 mm (28.12 in) is the third lowest on record and the lowest since 2001. The period normally gets 1202.2 mm (47.33 in) – a little less than twice the amount that fell.

Accumulation_Sep2018

Based on the last set of rainfall forecasts from regional and especially international sources, the news remains discouraging. Overall, below normal rainfall is likely for the next six months – November 2018 to April 2019. Thus, there is every reason to believe that the droughts will continue and likely worsen. The chance of the droughts ending is, at most 30% or low.

Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast of Rainfall For Nov 2018 - Jan 2019

Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast of Rainfall For Nov 2018 – Jan 2019

On average, our severe meteorological droughts last for around 16 months, but not continuously at severe intensity. Will this one go for another four months? Very likely, given the climate signals.

I now expected 2018 to be a drier than normal year with a confidence level of 80%. The best forecast for the amount of rainfall for the year is 845 mm (33.3 in) with a 70% chance of the amount ranging between 623 mm (24.5 in) and 1118 mm (44.0 in). Normally, we get 1206.5 mm (47.5 in) annually,

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Driest June in Over a Generation for Antigua, Droughts Continue

23 07 2018

Dale C. S. Destin |

June 2018 was the driest for Antigua in 33 years – over a generation. With the median age of the Antiguan population being around 31, most Antiguans have never seen a drier June. Not since 1985 has Antigua experienced a drier start to summer.

Potworks_Dam_Jul6_2018

The total rainfall for the month of 12.7 mm (0.50 in) was a parched 18% of what normally falls – 69.3 mm (2.73 in). Thus, there was an excruciating 82% rainfall deficit for the month.

This was the third driest June on record dating back to 1928. Only 1985 and 1974 Junes were drier with 12.4 mm (0.49 in) and 8.1 mm (0.32 in) respectively. The 12.7 mm for this June has a return period of 34 years i.e. such severe dryness for the month only occurs once in every 34 years, on average.

ModerateMetDroughtUnchangedThe last three-month period – April to June, upon which the assessment of the current intensity of the drought is based, had 128.3 mm (5.05 in), only around half of the normal total of 258.6 mm (10.18 in). This puts the meteorological drought current intensity at moderate, unchanged the previous assessment.

Overall, we are in a serious meteorological drought, but currently it is at moderate intensity. The overall description of the drought is based on the worst intensity achieved since it started; however, over time, the intensity will fluctuate.

Potworks Dam, with a billion-gallon capacity, has been totally dry for a couple of months now. The vegetation of the Island is struggling – grass has virtually ceased growing in some locations. Many fields are bare, with some having large cracks. These are indicative of the fact that the droughts not just meteorological, are at moderate levels or worse.

Happily, the full impacts of the droughts continue to be masked by the presence of the desalination plants; however, impacts are starting to break through. Potable water is being rationed, some places have been left without water for many hours to weeks, at a time. There will be a big press conference this morning by APUA – the water authority, to provide answers to the water problem.

The dry season – January to June, had well below normal rainfall. On a scale of 1 to 100, with 100 being best rainfall situation and 1 being the worst, the rainfall was less than a 10. Only 254.3 mm (10.01 in) or 59% of the normal total of 434.6 mm (17.11 in) fell. It was the 10th driest dry season on record dating back to 1928. Only dry season 2015 was drier since 2004.

RainfallForPast24Months_June2018

Rainfall (in) for the past 2 yrs. All periods showing well below or below normal rainfall.

The nine-month period – October 2017 to June 2018, the duration of the drought thus far, is deemed severely dry. This means that the total is in the bottom 5% of the historical data. Such dryness happens around once every 20 years, on average.

The total for the last nine months of 464.6 mm (18.29 in) is the lowest since 2001 and the third lowest on record dating back to 1928. The period normally gets 845.1 mm (33.27 in).

Based on the last set of rainfall outlooks from regional and especially international sources, the news remains bad for rainfall. Below normal rainfall is most likely for the next six months – August 2018 to January 2019. Thus, there is every reason to believe that the droughts will continue and likely worsen. The chance of the droughts ending is at most 20% or slight.

Prob Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast For ASO_Jul2018

Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast of Rainfall For Aug-Oct 2018

Recall that the current drought started in October 2017 with the intensity at serious levels. On average, serious meteorological droughts last for close to a year, but not continuously at serious intensity. Will it go for another three months? Yes, it is now almost certain that this drought will last for a year or more.

Our confidence of 2018 being a drier than normal year is growing. It has increased from 60% to 75% confidence. The best forecast for the amount of rain for the year is around 855 mm (33.7 in) with a 70% chance of the amount ranging between 625 mm (24.6 in) and 1139 mm (44.8 in). Normally, we get 1206.5 mm (47.5 in) annually.

Accumulations_June2018
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Drier Than Normal May for Antigua, Droughts Reintensify

28 06 2018

Dale C. S. Destin |

The rainfall for May 2018 was below normal for Antigua. The total of 43.9 mm (1.73 in) was only 42% of what normally falls – 103.6 mm (4.08 in). Thus, there was a 58% deficit of rainfall for the month.

DroughtDial-Slight_to_ModerateThe last three-month period – March to May, upon which the assessment of the current intensity of the drought is based, had 135.1 mm (5.32 in), only 56% of the normal total of 240.8 mm (9.48 in). This puts the meteorological droughts current intensity at moderate, declining from slight.

With Potworks Dam totally dry and the vegetation of the Island struggling, there is little doubt that most other droughts are at moderate levels or worse. Happily, the full impacts of the droughts continue to be masked by the presence of the desalination plants.

The eight-month period – October 2017 to May 2018, the duration of the drought thus far, is deemed severely dry. This means that the total is in the bottom 5% of the historical data; such dryness is unusual – it happens, at most, once every 20 years, on average. The total for the period of 451.9 mm (17.79 in) is the lowest since 2001 and the fourth lowest on record dating back to 1928. The period normally gets 775.7 mm (30.54 in).

TemporalRainfall

Based on the last set of rainfall outlooks, the news is not good for rainfall. Overall, below normal rainfall is most likely for, at least, the next three months – July to September. Further, recent outlooks from global models indicate that the next six months will see below normal rainfall. Thus, there is every reason to believe that the droughts will continue and likely worsen.

The rainfall total for the year thus far – January to May, is well below normal. The 365.3 mm (14.38 in) is only 66% of what normally falls. Of the 91 years on record, only 17 have been drier to this point.

RainfallAccumulations_May2018

Even if the rainfall total turns out to be near average, it will not be enough, especially with respect to the hydrological drought, as the monthly evaporation rates will significantly exceed rainfall totals for most of the upcoming months. The chance of the droughts ending is around 20% or slight.

Recall that the current drought started in October 2017 with the intensity at serious levels. On average, serious meteorological droughts last for close to a year, but not continuously at serious intensity. We have just passed the eight-month mark. Will it go another four months? The answer still looks more like to be yes than no.

If you found this article informative, I would be very grateful if you would help it spread by emailing it to a friend, or sharing it on Twitter or Facebook.

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Windy Weather to Cause More Hazardous Seas and Economic Losses

8 01 2018

Dale C. S. Destin |

Hazardous seas being caused by frequently strong winds – gusting to near gale force at times, will continue to keep most mariners in or near port over the upcoming week – causing further significant economic losses for many.

Seas around Antigua and Barbuda have been rough for most of the year, so far, and are set to remain that way or even worsen over the next seven days, at least. As usual, this type of weather is very disruptive to marine activities and have a negative economic impact, particularly on fisherfolk, those alone the fisheries value-chain and those involve in offshore pleasure cruises and adventures.

Small craft warning remains in effect for hazardous seas around Antigua and Barbuda and will likely remain in place for the rest of the week. Hence, small craft operators, especially inexperienced ones, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Warnings are also in effect for beach-goers as high surfs are affecting beaches, producing beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. Beach-goers should avoid the waters, especially those on the northern and eastern side of the islands. These high surfs are likely to subside to more manageable levels by Tuesday.

High surfs can also cause strong rip currents, which can carry even the strongest swimmers out to sea, and seawater splashing onto low-lying coastal roads, causing damage. Further, high surfs can also knock spectators off exposed rocks and jetties. Breaking waves may also occasionally impact harbours making navigating the harbour channel dangerous.

The wind speed will range between 14 and 22 knots (16 to 25 mph) and at times gusting to near 30 knots (35 mph). The winds will be strongest on Tuesday and Friday and will blow from near east for most of the week.

Wind speed – valid at 6 am, Tue, Jan 9, 2018

Seas will remain hazardous with steep waves ranging between 2 and 3 metres (7 and 10 ft), occasionally reaching near 4 metres (13 ft), mainly in open waters on the eastern or windward side of the islands.

Significant wave height (ft) – valid at 6 am, Tue, Jan 9, 2018

These strong winds not only cause hazardous seas but also cause certain onshore activities to be uncomfortable, if not dangerous. Hence, certain outdoor work will be hampered, if not halted, at times; thus, reducing productivity in other sectors.

The windy conditions and hazardous seas will also be experienced by all the islands of the Eastern Caribbean along with Hispaniola and the Bahamas, particularly the Atlantic coastal waters or the eastern and northern coastal waters.

The strong winds are not due to any storm system but rather because of steep pressure gradients across the area. Recall that winds blow due to pressure differences or pressure gradients, and the greater the gradients the stronger the winds and vice versa.

Also, the strength and position of the ever-present subtropical/Atlantic high-pressure system modulate the steepness of the pressure gradient. The closer and or stronger the subtropical high, the steeper the gradient, the stronger the winds and vice versa.

The subtropical high-pressure system will be stronger than normal for much of the next week; hence, the forecast continuation of strong winds, hazardous seas, disrupted marine activities and economic losses.

Although windy, the weather will be mostly dry with only occasional brief showers likely.

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Dangerous Surfs to Threaten Beachgoers in Antigua and Barbuda Easter Monday

17 04 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |

Those heading to the beaches in Antigua and Barbuda should be wary of the threat of strong rip currents Easter Monday through Wednesday.

Seas Forecast Apr 17, 2017

Beaches on the northern and eastern sides of the islands will be at greatest risk for stronger and more frequent rip currents through midweek, due to large swells. Seas are on the rise and will peak on Tuesday with a combination of wind waves and swells nearing 3.0 metres (10 ft) occasionally reaching 3.8 metres (13 ft).

A huge low pressure system near the centre of the North Atlantic is pushing large swells to the region. Meanwhile, the winds in the area are on the increase, which will cause a rise in the wind waves.

Low pressure systems

Rip currents are not new to our shores. They are always present in situations like this and are characterised by water flowing away from the shore. The strength of the current is usually proportional the height of the swells.

Vacationers and residents should take precautions while at the beach. It would be prudent to seek out only beaches under the watch of lifeguards, if possible, and heed all warnings issued. The west facing beasches should be least affected.

Should you ever get caught in a rip current, never attempt to swim directly back to shore as you will be swimming against the current. Instead, swim parallel to the beach to escape the current’s grip before swimming ashore.

Small craft should use caution and heed all advisories, as seas will also be rough.

Similar sea conditions are forecast for most of the rest of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the eastern parts of the Bahamas, the Winward Islands and Barbados. The swells will also eventually reach Trinidad and Tobago and the Guyanas late Tuesday.

It is also likely to be a somewhat wet Easter Monday as the same low pressure system mentioned above is pulling a lot of moisture across the islands. The range of the possible rainfall total is wide – 0 to 12 mm (0 to 0.48 in).

The increasing wind will peak late Easter Monday at around 16 knots (18 mph) over open waters and 13 knots (15 mph) over land. Frequent higher gusts will take place.

Seas will return to near normal levels on Thursday.





Storm-Force Wind Gusts and Hazardous Seas Are Returning to the Area

7 03 2017

Storm-force wind gusts and hazardous seas are returning to the area. The weather will be generally good but the increased winds will cause the lower atmosphere to become somewhat unsettled, giving rise to occasional showers.

The Met Office has already issued a small craft warning and this is expected to continue in place through, at least, Friday. Given the expected conditions, small craft operators should not venture far from port, especially on the windward side of the islands. Beachgoers should avoid the waters of the north and east facing beaches.

The expected strong gusts will also make some outdoor activities very uncomfortable if not dangerous. At least, light objects should be secured, as minimal storm conditions are possible. Please be guided accordingly.

The wind speed will steadily rise to 28 to 44 km/h (17 to 28 mph) by late Tuesday and continue in that range until Thursday; thereafter, subsiding. Wind gusts as high as 67 km/h (41 mph) are possible in showers. The prevailing winds will be east-northeast.

The major concern about the winds is the impact on the seas. They will cause the seas to become very hazardous, with heights reaching 4 metres (13 ft), occasionally reaching 5 metres (17 ft) late Tuesday and staying at those heights until Friday, when they will start to subside.

These conditions, especially the seas, will not be dissimilar to what would obtain during the passage of a tropical storm through the area. However, no such system will be around.

The brunt of this windy weather will be felt mainly over open waters on the windward side of the islands, windward coastlines and elevated places.

The gale-force or storm-force wind gusts and associated strong winds will be as a result of a very steep pressure gradient across the area. Recall that winds blow due to pressure differences or pressure gradients, and the greater the gradients the stronger the winds and vice versa.

The last episode of similarly strong winds and rough seas was a recent as last week.

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The Fourth Longest Sub-Twenty Cold Spell for Antigua and Barbuda

23 01 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |

Last night’s cold weather makes the current sub-twenty °C (sub 70 °F) cold spell the fourth longest on record at the Airport and most of the rest of Antigua and Barbuda. It tied with February and December of 1973.

With a mean minimum temperature of 18.6 °C (65.5 °F), it is also the second coldest sub-twenty cold spell for the country, on record, lasting more than three consecutive nights. The mean minimum temperature for the past four nights ranged between 11 and 22 °C (71.6 °F) with the vast majority of places experiencing sub-twenty temperatures.

jan2017coldspelltemps

The last time the Airport had a temperature below 18 C was in 2000 – 16 years ago.

We are also looking at the coldest four-night period for January since 1980 – over 35 years ago, and since 2000 for all other months, at least, at the Airport.

Of the eight times we have seen this spell lasting more than three days, it has gone for four days twice and five days thrice, based on data for the Airport.

The record five-day sub-twenty cold spell is shared by March 1997, January 1984 and March 1972. The coldest one is March 1972 with a mean minimum temperature of 18.5 °C (65.3 °F).

So far for January, the mean minimum temperature at the Airport is now 21.9 °C (71.4 °F) – below normal. The mean daily temperature is well below normal with a value of 24.6 °C (76.3 °F).

There is now about a 50/50 chance the record will be tied tonight, as conditions could favour sub-twenty temperatures once again. If it were to happen, this cold spell would likely become the longest as the chances of sub-twenty temperatures are high for Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Usual January temperatures are expected after Wednesday.

The statements above are truest for the Airport and surrounding areas; however, from a qualitative assessment, it is applicable to the rest of the country.

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A Hat-trick of Sub-Twenty Temperatures for most of Antigua and Barbuda

22 01 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |

Last night’s cold weather makes it a hat-trick of sub-twenty temperatures for most of Antigua and Barbuda. This is a fairly rare feat for the country. It has only happened seven other times during January, based on historical data for the Airport. The last time it happened in January was back in 1996 – 20 years ago. The last time it happened for any month was in March 2000.jan2017temperatureWhereas the last hat-trick of sub-twenty temperatures occurred last in January 1996, the coolest such period last took place in 1992. It is also the coolest such period, for all months, last occurred in March 2000. This and the rest of what is said here is an update on the previous blog.

The mean minimum temperature for the past three nights, at the Airport, was 18.5 °C (65.3 °F). This is the eighth coldest for three or more days in a row with sub-twenty temperatures at the Airport. Further, it is the 12 coldest for any three-day sub-twenty spell (overlapping and otherwise).

When we consider such a three-peat of sub-twenty temperatures for all months dating back to 1971, it has only happened 27 previous times.

So far for January, the mean minimum temperature at the Airport of 22.0 °C (72 °F) is below normal. However, up to three days ago, it was bordering on above normal – meaning we were having relatively warm nights for this time of the year. The mean daily temperature is well below normal with a value of 24.7 °C (76.5 °F).

As cold as it has been, it certainly has NOT nearly been cold enough to freeze water. Thus, that picture being circulated suggesting that the cold weather caused a small body of water to freeze in Free Town is a HOAX. For this to happen, we would need to have sub-zero temperatures persisting for days, which will NEVER happen.

There have only being five occasions when sub-twenty degree nights have occurred for more than three consecutive nights. Tonight is likely to be the sixth time this has happened. So far, today has been coldest of the past three days.

After tonight, the weather will warmup to usual temperatures for this time of the year. Then the cold weather will more likely than not return on Wednesday and continue on Thursday. Thereafter, the usual temperatures for this time of the year is expected to prevail for the rest of the month.

Although we are unable to say definitively how cold the country or specific areas have been due scarcity of historical temperature data, it is likely the coldest since 1996. This is based on fact that temperatures across a small homogeneous area like Antigua and Barbuda are highly correlated. And since it is the coldest for the Airport since 1992, it should be likewise for the rest of the islands.

From a quantitative standpoint, the statements above are truest for the Airport and surrounding areas; however, from a qualitative assessment, it is applicable to the rest of the country.

Follow us for all you need to know about this mini-cold spell we are experiencing. We can be followed on twitterfacebookinstagramtumblrflickrgoogle+, and youtube for education and information on all things weather and climate.





How Cold was Antigua and Barbuda Last Night?

20 01 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |

By Caribbean standards, the last two nights were very cold for Antigua and Barbuda. One of the coldest spots on the islands was Free Town, which had a minimum temperature of 13.9 °C (57.0 °F) night before last and 11.6 °C (52.9 °F) last night.

picture2jan212017picturejan202017The 11.6 °C  is now the lowest temperature ever measured by the Met Office. It eclipsed the previous short-lived record of 13.9 °C. However, it is unlikely to be the lowest temperature ever experienced in Free Town or by the country. The lowest ever measured is not the same as the lowest on record or in history.

Unfortunately, apart from the Airport, there were NO reliable temperature sensors elsewhere across the country until a few years ago. There exists very little historical data for Free Town, as the station was only installed last January. The same is true for most of the other stations listed above. Thus, regrettably, I am unable to say definitively just how cold it was in Free Town and most of the other locations.

The only site for which historical data exist is the Airport. The minimum temperature measured at the Airport last night was 18.4 °C (65.1 °F); this is well above the record of 16.1 °C (61.0 °F), measured back in December 1974 and January 1976.

Making some reasonable assumptions and using the Airport’s temperature from last night as a “barometer” for the rest of the country, last night was the coldest January night since 1996 and the 12th coldest dating back to, at least, 1971.

Last night, the minimum temperature range for Antigua and Barbuda was 11.0 to 21.0 °C (52 to 69.8 °F) . The previous night it was 13.0 to 22.0 °C (55.4 to 72 °F). It is possible that a few areas had temperatures slightly below or above this range.

The cold weather last night was due to the time of the year, light winds, mostly clear skies and low moisture levels. Last night was colder than Thursday night mainly because moisture levels were lower. These conditions will continue for the next 24 hours; hence, tonight is expected to be similarly cold. Thereafter, the winds will increase and so will the temperature.

With the few cold nights, some have advanced the notion that we are having a colder than usual January. However, this is not borne out by the data at the Airport, thus far. The mean minimum temperature up to two days ago, at the Airport, for the month was 22.6 °C (72.7 °F), 0.2 °C above the average of 22.4 °C  (72.3 °F).

The cold weather was also experienced across most of the rest of the northeast Caribbean for the second night also. Le Raizet, Guadeloupe had a minimum of 17.6 °C (63.7 °F) night before last and 16.8 °C (62.2 °F) last night, meanwhile Clayton J. Lloyd International Airport in Anguilla had 19.4 °C (66.9 °F) and 20.2 °C (68.4 °F) respectively.

Will it be colder tonight, with some places having sub 10 °C (sub 50 °F)? Follow us via our social media platform:  twitter,  facebook,  instagramtumblrflickrgoogle+, and youtube and stay informed. We would also be happy to hear from you regarding how cold you felt and your experience with the weather generally.





Potentially Drought-Busting Rainfall This Week

17 04 2016

Dale C. S. Destin |

A trough system could potentially cause drought-busting rainfall across Antigua and the rest of northeast Caribbean during this week. The system could dump up to 150 mm (6.0 in) of rain on the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands over the next six days, starting  tonight – Sunday night.

GFS forecast rainfall total for the period 2 pm, April 16 to 2 pm, April 23, 2016

GFS forecast rainfall total for the period 2 pm, April 15 to 2 pm, April 22, 2016

We could get drought-busting rainfall i.e. sufficient rainfall to bring a welcome end to the meteorological and agricultural droughts taking place across Antigua and nearby islands. However, it is unclear as to whether it will be enough to replenish surface catchments and aquifers to end the more serious socioeconomic droughts, which are costing the islands dearly. Nevertheless, the rainfall is likely to put a big dent in this drought also.

Given the potential amount of rainfall that could occur, at least moderate flooding is possible of low-lying and flood-prone areas across the northeast Caribbean, including Antigua and Barbuda. Thus, the requisite watches and warnings may be required for portions of this week.

GFS probability forecast of total rainfall for April 17-23 exceeding 75 mm (3 in)

GFS probability forecast of total rainfall for April 15-22 exceeding 75 mm (3 in)

GFS probability forecast of total rainfall for April 17-23 exceeding 150 mm (6 in)

GFS probability forecast of total rainfall for April 15-22 exceeding 150 mm (6 in)

A number of weather models, including two of the best – the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) and the Global Forecasting System (GFS), are showing very high probabilities of this week being very wet, especially relative to April. However, it is not a 100% certain. Further, the eventual rainfall total is quite uncertain.

Most for the precipitation is likely to be in the form of rain from layer-type clouds as opposed to the showers from convective-type clouds. Notwithstanding, thunderstorms are possible every day from Monday to Friday. The sun could also be hidden by thick clouds for most of the week.

The normal rainfall for April is 85.6 mm (3.37 in). On record dating back to 1928, April 1981 is the wettest with 245.4 mm (9.66 in), and the driest is April 1944 with 5.8 mm (0.23 in). At the V. C. Bird International Airport, the normal rainfall for April 17-22 is 12.7 mm (0.50 in). The wettest was 1992 with 112.0 mm (4.41 in) and the driest of 0.0 mm occurred on at least six occasions since 1961.

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