Relatively Very Wet Weekend Possible for Parts of the Northeast Caribbean

4 02 2022

Dale C. S. Destin |

A cold front looks poised to cause a relatively very wet weekend across much of the northeast Caribbean, including Antigua and Barbuda. Several reliable models are forecasting possible rainfall totals of 25 to 76 mm (1 to 2 in) to fall over the period Friday to Sunday.

Proxy visible satellite image

The potential total of 76 mm in 48 to 72 hours is not in and of itself a high figure. However, relative to February, this is a lot of water. The average rainfall for the second month of the year is 50.0 mm (1.97 in). This means we could welcome more than the average for the month, in a few days.

After this weekend, this February could be the wettest since 2004, ranking among the top 10, on record. Only seven Februarys, on record dating back to 1928, had more than 76 mm (3 in) of rainfall.

GFS model indicating 30-40% chance of more than 25 mm in 24 hours ending 8 am (12 UTC) Saturday, 5 Feb, 2022

If the models prove right, this weekend would easily be the wettest in, at least, 16 weeks and the wettest month in four months. Some parts of the country could see a record wet first week of February. The record for February 1-7, at the Airport, is 54.8 mm (2.16 in), which occurred in 2002. We could also see the 24-hour rainfall accumulation, across some parts of the island, exceed 25.4 mm or one inch, for the first time since 2004 and the fourth time on record.

Notwithstanding the potential for a relatively very wet weekend, this will have minimal impact on the droughts. It will likely have a big impact on domestic catchments but virtually no impact on the island’s catchments.

There is no doubt that these showers would be welcome by all; however, they could prove very disruptive to the ongoing ICC Under-19 Cricket World Cup, which climaxes this weekend, with the final and third-place position. It will likely also be disruptive to other outdoor events.

The system has already caused wet weather across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico with isolated totals of up to 203 mm (8 in). If this amount were to reach us, it would cause absolutely wet conditions and place a dent in the drought, but it is very unlikely that we will get this lucky.

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Needed Showers but Unwelcome Hazardous Seas for Much of the Caribbean

7 03 2016

Dale C. S. Destin |

A cold front is sweeping the Caribbean, bringing much-needed showers but unwelcome strong winds and hazardous seas.

Rainfall

Already, more than an inch of rain has fallen in parts of Cuba and Hispaniola over the past 72 hours. Meanwhile, winds have reached near 20 knots (23 mph) with stronger gusts across Cuba. Seas are near 3 m (10 ft.) and rising, mainly across the northern waters of the Bahamas.

The front is expected to reach Trinidad by around Thursday/Friday, which is very unusual for such a system to go so far south into the Caribbean.

As it moves across the region, showers will spread to the Virgin Islands today; the Leeward Islands late Tuesday/Wednesday; the Windward Islands and Barbados Wednesday/Thursday and Trinidad and Tobago Thursday/Friday.

Most of these islands will likely see rainfall totals in the range of 10-40 mm (0.40-1.60 in). At least minor inland flooding is possible across some islands.

FcastRain

Forecast 5-Day Rainfall Total for the Period March 7-11, 2016

Strong winds and rough seas will reach the various islands within 24 hours after the arrival of the front and continuing for up to 120 hours after the front passes. Thus, by Friday, most of the waters of the Caribbean will be having hazardous seas and will require the requisite warnings for mariners and sea bathers. Seas could peak near 3.5 m (12 ft.) across some areas.

Seas.png

Most areas will see sustained winds in excess of 20 knots (23 mph) with gusts across a few islands reaching gale force strength of near 40 knots (46 mph). Higher elevations can expect higher speeds.

WindGusts.png

With the combination of strong winds, sea swells and wind-driven waves, flooding of low-lying coastal areas due to large breaking waves is possible. Damage to coastlines can also be expected.

The strong winds could also render some routine outdoor activities uncomfortable if not hazardous.

We will continue to follow the progress of this system and keep you posted. Meanwhile, pay attentions forecast coming from your local meteorological office for information specific to you location.





A Break in the Warm Surge for the Western Caribbean

30 04 2015

Dale C. S. Destin |

A cold front is set to dowse the western Caribbean and the Bahamas with heavy showers over the next several days.

2 AM SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS FOR THU APR 30 2015

                               2 AM SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS FOR THU APR 30 2015                               CREDIT NOAA

10:45 AM SATELLITE PICTURE

10:45 AM SATELLITE PICTURE

These showers will be very heavy at times and are expected to will break the warm, dry spell for that part of the region; however, the rest of the area will continue to see scorching weather.

The high pressure ridge, which is the main cause of the parched weather across the region, will block the progress of the front causing it to linger for much longer than normal across the Western Caribbean.  Precipitation from this system could continue well into next weekend, with few breaks.

RAINFALL FORECAST FOR APR 30 TO MAY 7, 2015

ONE WEEK RAINFALL FORECAST: APR 30 TO MAY 6, 2015

Possible rainfall totals over the next seven days across the Bahamas and Cuba are 100-200 mm (4-8 in). This could cause like threatening flash floods and mudslides in some areas. Much lower totals are possible across the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and Hispaniola.

Notwithstanding the potential for flooding, this will be much welcome rainfall as many places across the Bahamas and Cuba are experiencing rainfall deficits. And like the rest of the Caribbean, El Nino is likely to cause significant rainfall deficits for upcoming months.

We will be following this weather as it unfolds.








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