High Surf Events This Week

27 01 2021

Dale C. S. Destin|

Much higher than usual surfs are expected to pound the shorelines of much of the Eastern Caribbean. One episode is getting underway and will last for 24 to 36 hours. A second episode will occur over the weekend. These surfs are expected to cause the threat level to rise to high for life, livelihood, property and infrastructure of those using or living on the affected coastlines and there is the potential for extensive impacts.

Past Surf Event - James Beach
Fort James Beach, Antigua, During a Past High Surf Event

Based on the expected swells, which will transition to surfs when they reach near shore, surfs over 3 metres (10 feet) are projected to take place at times. Advisories and warnings are expected for a number of islands.

The first hazardous surf event is likely to subside by Friday for most areas but rise again over the weekend. The second episode of dangerous surfs will start across the Bahamas on Friday and reach the Eastern Caribbean by Saturday.

It is the surf season, when powerful winter storms come off North America, often packing the equivalent of tropical cyclone winds, sometimes reaching winds equal to hurricane strength. These systems frequently track across the “pond” from the United states to Europe, all the while pushing large swells toward the Caribbean and elsewhere, resulting in hazardous conditions along mainly north and east-facing coastlines of the islands.

5-day plot - Swell Height at 41044
High Swells Heading for the Eastern Caribbean to Become High Surfs or Breaking Waves Near Shorelines

The coming high surf events will be due to a series of winter storms. The one that will cause the surf episode over the weekend will be a storm, whose pressure drop by 24 millibar or more in 24-hours. Such winter storm systems are called bomb-cyclones.

There is no strong wind concern for any of the islands. The concern is for mainly Atlantic coastlines for especially the Northeast Caribbean – from Puerto Rico to the northern Windward Islands.

Potential impacts include but not limited to:

  • loss of life;
  • injuries to beachgoers;
  • salt-water intrusion and disruptions to potable water from desalination
  • disruptions to marine recreation and businesses;
  • beach erosion and
  • sea water splashing onto low lying coastal roads.

All should be very wary about bathing in the impacted areas. Personally, although I can swim, I do not plan to go to the beach during the times the surfs are expected to be higher than usual. Going rock fishing is not advisable.

The concern is not only for high surfs, but also rip currents. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and near structures such as groins, jetties and piers. High surf events make for very conducive conditions for rip currents.

If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don’t swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

Please continue to follow me for more on this hazardous marine event and all things weather and climate via TwitterFacebook and Instagram. Also, share this blog, if you found it useful.





Extreme Winds and Seas to Usher in the New Year

28 12 2020

Dale C. S. Destin |

Extreme wind and marine events are forecast for this week across the northeast Caribbean, including Antigua and Barbuda. The howling wind event will take place Thursday – NEW YEAR’S EVE, through Saturday – January 2, whereas the life-threatening marine event will take place New Year’s Eve night through Sunday – January 3. Warnings and advisories for strong winds, rough seas and high surfs will be required for most islands.

Northeast Caribbean: Estimated max 3-second gusts; max sustained 10-minute winds; average of the top 10% of significant wave heights and average of top 10% of swells

The angry winds and seas could cause notable socio-economic impacts to the islands. Similar actions by nature, earlier this year, caused ships to turn away from Antigua and Barbuda and cancelled ferry services. There were also reports of LIAT aborting landings in some islands; banana trees being downed in some countries and power outage in some areas.

The kick-off of these unwelcome but not unusual events is expected on Thursday. The pressure gradient will rapidly and significantly steepen, which will become evident by the closeness of the isobars – lines of equal pressure, on our weather maps. The closer the isobars, the steeper the pressure gradient, the stronger the winds and vice versa.

Gale-force gusts, the equivalent to tropical storm-force gusts, are likely – gusts exceeding 78 km/h (over 48 mph). Otherwise, the winds will frequently be above 40 km/h (over 25 mph). The maximum sustained 10-minute wind speeds will likely reach around 50 km/h (31 mph), whereas the maximum sustained 1-minute winds will reach around 56 km/h (35 mph). The strongest winds are forecast for New Year’s Day, especially across open waters, windward coastal areas and elevated places. The prevailing wind direction will be northeast.

Visualization of wind gusts (shaded) wind direction (short solid lines) and isobars (long solid lines with numbers – pressure in millibars) – December 31 2020 to January 4 2021

As the winds go, so go the seas. The tumultuous winds will cause the seas to rise and become extremely threatening – very rough in open waters on Thursday through Sunday. Significant wave heights could peak at or above 4 metres (over 13 feet), locally exceeding 5 metres (near 17 feet). The highest seas are also expected on New Year’s Day. These seas will be non-navigational for small craft and even some non-small-craft operators.

Significant wave heights according to the ECMWF WAM Model – December 31 2020 to January 5 2021

High swells and surfs (breaking waves) are also forecast for Sunday. Swells in excess of 2.5 metres (over 8 feet) and surfs in excess of 3 metres (over 10 feet) are likely. These breaking waves will make for very dangerous conditions for beachgoers and others using the coastlines.

The events will make for a high threat to the life and livelihood and property and infrastructure of mariners and users of the nearshore areas. There is also the potential for extensive impacts including the following:

  • Loss of life
  • Injuries
  • Damage or loss of boats and fishing equipment
  • Saltwater intrusion and disruptions to potable water from desalination
  • Coastal flooding from sea water splashing onto low lying coastal roads
  • Sea search and rescue disruptions
  • Cancellations to transportation (especially by sea)
  • Scarcity of sea food
  • Disruption or cancellation to sporting and recreation events (especially marine activities)
  • Businesses and economic losses

To be safe, mariners should stay in or near port and beachgoers should stay out of the waters for affected coastlines. Also, residents should secure light and loose objects, which can be blown away, and caution should be taken when driving. The anticipated blustery winds could make some outdoor activities uncomfortable, if not outright dangerous. These winds can also create dangerous fallen or blowing objects.

The turbulent winds will unsettle the atmosphere, resulting in brief heavy showers. However, rainfall accumulations will only be of minimal concern, at most.

These events will affect virtually the entire Caribbean Basin, at different times. They will start across the Bahamas and the Western Caribbean on Tuesday and reach the northeast Caribbean on Thursday. Then, they will spread across the southern Caribbean by Friday – New Year’s Day. The extreme events will come to an end by Sunday, January 3, 2021, although seas will likely still be hazardous for some areas, beyond Sunday.

At times, it may feel like there is a tropical storm in the area, but I can ashore you that there is none. The hurricane season remains over.

Check and monitor your local forecasts, from your national weather service, for details specific to your location. This is a relatively broad scale view; hence, the numbers WILL change either way.

Please continue to follow me for more on these extreme events and all things weather and climate via TwitterFacebook and Instagram. Also, share this blog, if you found it useful.





Another Bomb Cyclone to Push Impactful Swells to the Caribbean

7 03 2020

Dale C. S. Destin|

Another bomb cyclone is expected to cause another episode of  large and damaging swells across much of the Caribbean Basin. The impactful swells will start to reach the shorelines of the Basin this Sunday. These swells are forecast to reach a few metres and break at higher heights on coastlines.

Visualization of northerly swells forecast to come to the Caribbean from the bomb cyclone

Swells will rise to at least 3 metres (at least 10 feet) across most of the Atlantic waters of the islands. These swells will produce even higher surfs or breaking waves. Surfs could be as much as twice the height of the incoming swells, depending on the bathymetry/topography of the near shore seafloor. The swells and surfs are expected to cause beach closures, as swimming conditions will become quite hazardous. Other impacts include:

  • major beach erosion;
  • flooding of some low-lying coastal roads;
  • disruptions to marine recreation and businesses;
  • disruptions to potable water from desalination;
  • damage to coral reefs and
  • financial losses.

Advisories and warnings will be required for much of the upcoming week. Please be guided by the bulletins coming out of your national weather services.

The event will be cause by an average extratropical cyclone transitioning to a bomb cyclone – a drop of 24 millibars/hectopascals or more in 24 hours or less. This will result in the system developing gale-force or tropical-storm-force winds that will push large waves to the Caribbean.

8 pm local time Friday, 6 March, 2020: Bomb cyclone with centre marked by the X near the red L, just off the coast of New York
Visualization of Bomb Cyclone 6 am UTC Saturday or 2 am local time Saturday, 7 March, 2020: Pressure – shaded areas, isobars – circular fixed lines (1012, 1008, 1004 etc.) and wind direction – lines circling inwards toward the centre of the bomb cyclone
Visualization of Bomb Cyclone 6 am UTC Saturday or 2 am local time Saturday, 7 March, 2020: Wind speed – shaded areas, wind direction – lines circling inwards toward the centre of the bomb cyclone

The cyclone will remain very far away from the area – thousands of miles; however, it will have a significant impact on the region, by way of swells transforming into high surfs on our shores. Associated with these surfs are potentially very powerful and life-threatening rip currents.

The first set of these swells will reach the Bahamas on Sunday; the northeast Caribbean, including Antigua and Barbuda, by Monday and the rest of the Eastern Caribbean by Tuesday. The event will likely last three days from its start time. So, for the northeast Caribbean, its Monday through Thursday.

As usual, the impacts on shorelines will not be the uniformed. The impacts will depend on the depth and the natural shelter of the coastal waters. Northern islands with moderately sloping, shallow, northern and or north-facing shorelines are expected to see the highest swells and surfs, and hence; the greatest impacts.

This event is not expected to be worse than the last notable one which took place in January 2020. Notwithstanding, it will not be your “garden variety” event.

The event will also be felt along the East Coast of the United States. The same powerful cyclone will also cause extreme weather across Ireland, the United Kingdom and northern Europe next week.

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Bomb Cyclone to Push Damaging Swells Across the Caribbean

16 01 2020

Dale C.S Destin|

The Caribbean Basin is about to see another round of large and damaging swells reaching its shorelines starting Saturday, from a bomb cyclone. Swells are forecast to exceed 3.5 metres (12 feet) and break at higher heights, as surfs, on coastlines. This is likely to be the biggest swell event since Swellmageddon of March 2018.

Animation of bomb cyclone, east of Canada, with pressure pattern, wind speeds and directions, as forecast by the Global Forecasting System (GFS) Model. Time in UTC

The event will be kicked off by a relatively inconspicuous low-pressure system (LPS), currently over the northeast United States. The LPS will go through explosive development (bombogenesis) over the next 24 hours and become a ginormous and powerful bomb cyclone (extratropical cyclone) over the northwest North Atlantic, with hurricane-force winds.

Although this system will form over 3220 km (2000 miles) away, it will have a significant impact on the region, through its strong winds pushing unusually high waves to our shores. The first set of these swells will reach the Bahamas on Saturday; the northeast Caribbean, including Antigua and Barbuda, on Sunday and the Guianas on Monday. The event will likely last three days from its start time. So, for the northeast Caribbean, its Sunday through Tuesday.

Animation of swells forecast to move across the region from the bomb cyclone, as predicted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wave model (WAM). Time in UTC.

Swells will rise to to in excess of 3.5 metres across most of the Atlantic waters of the islands. There swells will produce even higher surfs or breaking waves. These surfs could be as much as twice the height of the incoming swells, depending on the bathymetry/topography of the near shore seafloor. This is expected to cause beach closures, as swimming conditions will become quite hazardous. Other impacts include:

  • major beach erosion;
  • flooding of some low-lying coastal roads;
  • disruptions to marine recreation and businesses;
  • disruptions to potable water from desalination;
  • damage to coral reefs and
  • Financial losses.

Advisories and warnings will be required for the weekend and or the first half of next week. The event will also be felt along the East Coast of the United States, Canada, Greenland, Iceland, the United Kingdom and Norway. Rowers of the Talisker Whisky Atlantic Challenge will also be negatively impacted, exponentially increasing the challenge of an already very challenging race.

High surf warnings or advisories will be required for coastal areas for much of the Caribbean this weekend and into the middle of next week

The impact on shorelines will not be the same everywhere. Depending on the depth and the natural shelter of the coastal waters, the impact will be different. Moderately sloping, shallow, north and or north-facing shorelines are expected to see the highest swells and surfs.

The bomb cyclone will go from a central pressure of 1004 hectopascals (hpa) (which is the same in millibars) to around 968 hpa in 24 hours and to a minimum of 955 hpa in 48 hours, just east of Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. This represents an explosive drop of 59 hpa – more than one hpa per hour; thus, meeting the definition of a bomb cyclone – a drop in pressure of an extratropical cyclone of at least 24 hpa in 24 hours or less.

By Saturday, this weather bomb will be packing Category 1, hurricane force winds – 119 to 153 km/h (74 to 95 mph). These are the winds that will, in turn, generate large waves that will traverse the Atlantic and pound the shorelines of the Caribbean, inundating some low-lying coastal areas.

Of course, the hurricane force winds do not even have the remotest of chance of reaching the Islands; however, some of the wind energy, transferred into the seas will reach us in the form of ocean waves – ground swells. As you may know, waves do not transport water; they transport energy, which can de destructive when they break on shorelines.

Animation of wind directions and speeds forecast to impact the region, as predicted by the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) Model. Time in UTC.

Talking about winds, they are expected to surge – getting to the general range of 25 to 45 (16 to 28 mph), across the region again late Saturday and likely continue into Monday. Storm-force gusts to near 65 km/h (40 mph) are expected, especially in showers. Thus, both high wind advisories and small craft warnings are highly possible late Saturday through Monday morning.

Our (Caribbean) weather will also become wet again over the weekend and into midweek. There is a very high chance of occasional brief showers, as the high winds will destabilise the atmosphere via mixing and low-level convergence.

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Destructive Swells to Impact Much of the Atlantic Basin This Week – Including the Caribbean

27 10 2019

Dale C. S. Destin|

A major swell event is forecast to impact much of the Atlantic Basin this week, including Antigua and Barbuda and the rest of the Caribbean, washed by the Atlantic. The swells are expected to cause high surfs and powerful rip currents, which will be a severe threat to life and property, mainly in the surf zone. There is also the increased likelihood of damage due to flooding of some low-lying coastal areas.

Swells Forecast For Friday Nov 1, 2019

Swells reaching the region are expected to rise to over 3 metres (over 10 ft) and locally or occasionally exceeding 3.5 metres (12 ft), coming out of the northeast. These swells will result in dangerous, life-threatening surfs for beachgoers and other users of coastal areas; hence, advisories and or warnings will be required. Some meteorological services have already issued marine alerts on the event – see information coming out of your national meteorological service for the specifics on this event.

Swells heading our way – Antigua and the Caribbean, have spiked to near 14 feet (4 metres). At periods of 10-15 seconds, it takes 8 to 12 hours for swells to reach us from this buoy/weather station. Please note that we may not see 14 ft swells in the area; however, they are expected to, at least, peak over 10 feet, with higher surfs – causing very hazardous, life-threatening conditions at near-shore/coastals areas. 

The swell event started four days ago by hurricane-force winds associated with an enormaous low-pressure area, which contained Hurricane Pablo and a very powerful extra-tropical cyclone. Since then, Pablo has dissipated and the extra-tropical cyclone ahs transitioned to Subtropical Storm Rebekah. Of course, the extreme weather directly associated with the low never had a chance of reaching the Caribbean and Rebekah likewise has no chance of directly impacting the region.

The Enormous Low-Pressure Area Generating the Swells

The swells in and of themselves are not the real concern. The greater concern is the large breaking swells or high surfs that these swells will caused when they reach the shorelines of the region. Such long period swells can result in surfs as high as twice their heights i.e. in excess of 6 metres ( in excess of 20 ft), in some areas.

Puerto Rico’s Met Service is Forecasting Surfs to Exceed 15 Feet (4.5 metres)
High Surf - Fort James, Antigua
Past High Surf – Fort James, Antigua

The eventual heights of the surfs are largely dependent on the bathymetry (shape and depth) of the near shore coastal areas they interact with. Generally, the shallower the near shore areas, the higher the surfs. The greatest impact will be on the north, northeast and east-facing beaches and coastlines.

The event has started across the northeast Caribbean and will reach the southern Caribbean and South America, including the Guyanas by tomorrow – Monday. A second pulse of dangerous swells will reach the Caribbean by late Thursday. These swells are also forecast to reach the east coast of the United States, Canada and as far away as Greenland, Iceland, the United Kingdom, Europe and Africa.

These high surfs will have the potential impact of injuries or loss of life, beach closures and financial losses. Impacts could also include:

  • disruption to potable water from desalination;
  • salt water intrusion;
  • flooding of low-lying coastal roads;
  • beach erosion;
  • disruptions to near shore marine recreation and businesses;
  • damage to coral reefs and
  • disruptions of marine transportation.

These swells and surfs could result in strong rip currents that can carry even the strongest swimmers out to sea. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and near structures such as groins, jetties and piers.

If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don`t swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

There is also concern for those who visit non-beach coastal areas. High surfs can knock spectators off exposed rocks and jetties. Those who rock fish need to pay attention and not expose themselves to this hazard. Breaking waves may occasionally impact harbours making navigating the harbour channel dangerous.

With this event happening during or near a new moon, coastal flooding and erosion are more likely than usual. Coastal flooding from the sea is largely depended on high tides, onshore wind and swell actions.

The potential impacts listed above are just that – potential/possible impacts. I am not saying that they will all definitely happen, but conditions could result in such and past similar swell events have caused such.

If an high advisory is issued for an area – be extremely cautious; bathe only where lifeguards are present. If a high surf warning is issued – do not enter the water. Relatively safe conditions are likely on the opposite, or in this case, the southern sides of the islands.

Swells and associated surfs will peak across the Caribbean tonight and or Monday and again Thursday and or Friday. The highest swells across the region are likely across the northeast Caribbean – Antigua and Barbuda and the rest of the Leeward Islands.

I will keep you updated on this event via TwitterFacebook and Instagram. Please share this blog, if you found it useful and follow me for more on all things weather and climate.

Editor’s note: This post was originally published Oct 27, 2019 and updated on Oct 31, 2019 to reflect changing conditions.





A Major Swell Event to Impact the Caribbean This Week

21 01 2019

A major swell event is forecast to impact much of the Caribbean this week. Swells are likely to exceed 2.5 metres (8 ft) and occasionally exceeding 3 metres (10 ft), coming out of the north. These swells will result in dangerous surfs for beachgoers; hence, advisories and or warnings will be required.

Spacial Distribution of Swells - Thu 22 Jan 2019

Spacial Distribution of Swells – Thu 24 Jan 2019. Grapic Courtesy windy.com

The swell event will be generated by gale-force/storm-force winds, from a powerful low-pressure system, making its way across the northern North Atlantic. This is the same system that dumped an obscene amount of snow – over 660 mm (26 in) across parts the United States.  Obviously, none of this weather will reach the Caribbean but the sea swells will.

The swells in and of themselves are not the real concern. The greater concern is the large breaking swells or high surfs that these swells will caused when they reach the shorelines across the region. Such long period swells can result in surfs as high as twice their heights i.e. up to 6 metres (20 ft).

High Surf - Fort James, Antigua

High Surf – Fort James, Antigua

The eventual height of the surfs is largely dependent on the bathymetry (shape and depth) of the near shore coastal areas they interact with. Generally, the shallower the near shore areas, the higher the surfs. The greatest impact will be on the north-facing beaches and coastlines.

The event has started across the Bahamas and will reach the western Caribbean by tomorrow – Tuesday. It will then spread to the Eastern Caribbean Wednesday, including Antigua and Barbuda, and the southern Caribbean on Thursday. Moderate swells and associated high surfs are also forecast to reach the coastline of northeast South America, including the Guyanas on Friday.

These high surfs will have the potential impact of injuries or loss of life, beach closures and financial losses. Impacts could also include:

  • disruption to potable water from desalination;
  • salt water intrusion;
  • flooding of low-lying coastal roads;
  • beach erosion;
  • disruptions to near shore marine recreation and businesses;
  • damage to coral reefs and
  • disruptions of marine transportation.

These swells and surfs could result in strong rip currents that can carry even the strongest swimmers out to sea. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and near structures such as groins, jetties and piers.

If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don`t swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

There is also concern for those who visit non-beach coastal areas. High surfs can knock spectators off exposed rocks and jetties. Those who rock fish need to pay attention and not expose themselves to this hazard. Breaking waves may occasionally impact harbours making navigating the harbour channel dangerous.

With this event happening near a full supermoon, high tides will be higher than usual; hence, coastal flooding and erosion are more likely than usual. Coastal flooding from the sea is largely depended on high tides, onshore wind and swell actions.

The potential impacts listed above are just that – potential/possible impacts. I am not saying that they will all definitely happen, but conditions could result in such and past similar swell events have caused such.

If an high advisory is issued for an area – be extremely cautious; bathe only where lifeguards are present. If a high surf warning is issued – do not enter the water. Relatively safe conditions are likely on the opposite or southern sides of the islands.

Swells and associated surfs will peak across the Bahamas on Wednesday; the Eastern Caribbean on Thursday; the southern Caribbean Friday and northeast South America on Saturday.

In addition, to concerns for those using the beaches and coastlines, there are concerns for mariners of the northern islands, as expected strong winds will, among other things, cause hazardous seas. For more, see my blog – Strong Winds and Hazardous Seas to Impact Parts of the Caribbean, coming out tomorrow.





Leslie to Cause a Mini Swellmageddon Across the Caribbean

28 09 2018

Dale C. S. Destin |

Ex-Tropical Storm Leslie is about to cause a mini Swellmageddon across much the Caribbean, after the passage of Kirk. The system is expected to be a major swell-maker, which will become very evident in 24 hours; hence, Swimming conditions at many beaches will become very hazardous.

Fort James Beach During Swellmageddon – Mar 2018

Fort James Beach During Swellmageddon – Mar 2018

Currently, Leslie is not a tropical cyclone. It transitioned into an extratropical cyclone, a few days ago. However, it has not gone any place. The cyclone is forecast to be resurrected. She will strengthen, return to tropical cyclone status in the next 48 hours and eventually become the sixth hurricane for the season.

The hurricane-force winds, to be produced by the cyclone, will never reach us, but they will push, dangerous and damaging sea swells to our shorelines, particularly the Atlantic-facing ones.

Swell height at a NOAA buoy located about 370 NNE of Antigua

Swell Heights at a NOAA Buoy Located About 370 NNE of Antigua

Swells are forecast to steeply climb to 3 metres (10 feet) on Saturday. These large and dangerous battering swells are expected to pummel our shorelines over the upcoming weekend before subsiding to safe levels by mid next week.

Swells Forecast by ECWMF

Swells (colour coded) and Pressure (lines in ATM/Torr) Forecast by the ECMWF WAM 11km Model for Sat Sep 28, 2018

Recall the swell event I dubbed Swellmageddon earlier this year – March 4-7, 2018. It was a swell episode of epic proportion – almost unheard of in the Caribbean. This upcoming swell episode is not expected to be as severe, but it won’t be your garden-variety event either.

The large swells will produce even higher breaking swells or surfs, which could be as much as twice the height of the swells. This means that surfs are expected to range between 3 and 6 metres (10 to 20 feet) this weekend, depending on the bathymetry/topography of the near shore seafloor. This is expected to cause some beach closures, as swimming conditions will become very dangerous for beachgoers, by tomorrow.

This mini Swellmageddon will likely, among other things, also cause:

  • major beach erosion;
  • flooding of some low-lying coastal roads;
  • disruptions to marine recreation and businesses;
  • disruptions to potable water from desalination;
  • damage to coral reefs and
  • Financial losses.

Advisories have already been issued by a few of the region’s national meteorological services. More advisories and or warnings are expected to be issued over the upcoming days. This event will be felt as far west as the Bahamas and as far south as Guyana, Brazil and beyond. The event will also be felt along the East Coast of the United States, Canada and perhaps, as far away as, West Africa.

The impact on shorelines will not be the same everywhere. Depending on the depth and the natural shelter of the coastal waters, the impact will be different. Shallow north-facing shorelines are expected to see the highest swells and surfs. Surfs could rise to as high as 6 metres (20 feet), at some locations.

In open waters, the swells from Mini Swellmageddon will be virtually harmless to small craft operators, as they will be long-period waves with gentle gradients.

There is no chance of any of the destructive winds, from the cyclone at the centre of this significant swell event, reaching the Caribbean. Normal seasonal winds will prevail.

Keep following us for more on this significant swell event and for everything weather and climate. Actual images of the high surfs will be posted on facebook.com/anumetservice and twitter.com/anumetservice.





Windmageddon To Produce Swellmageddon Across The Caribbean

3 03 2018

Dale C. S. Destin |

A gigantic low-pressure system, nicknamed windmageddon due to widespread damage and power outages it caused across the Northeast United States, is about to cause swellmageddon. Swellmageddon because the low-pressure area will cause enormous, dangerous and destructive sea swells that will wreak havoc on the shorelines of Antigua and much of the Caribbean.

High Surfs

Large Breaking Swells (High Surfs)

Large and dangerous battering swells, peaking in excess of 4 m (13 ft), are expected to pommel our shoreline starting Sunday and continuing until Friday. This is expected to be the worse swell event thus far for the winter season.

Swellmageddon

Such high swells will produce even higher surfs that will result in beach closures as swimming conditions will become extremely dangerous for beachgoers.

Swellmageddon will likely cause major beach erosion; flooding of low lying coastal roads; disruptions to marine recreation and businesses; financial losses and damage to coral reefs.

This major swell event may also cause disruptions to potable water from desalination as turbulent seas could increase the turbidity of the water above safe levels for the desalting plants.

A high surf warning is expected to be issued by the Met Office for Antigua and the rest of the northeast Caribbean. Other Offices are expected to issue warnings for as far west as the Bahamas and extending south to the Windward islands. Swells could exceed 5 m (17 ft) across the Bahamas.

The impact on shorelines will not be the same everywhere. Depending on the depth and the natural shelter of the coastal waters the impact will be different. Shallow north-facing shorelines are expected to see the highest swells and surfs.

In open waters, the swells from swellmageddon will be virtually harmless to small craft operators as they will be long-period waves with gentle gradients.

Windmageddon will not cause any destructive winds across us, far from, but it will cause them to come from some very unusual directions for this part of the world. They are going to becoming from the south, west and north at times over the next several days before return the usual direction of east next weekend.

Keep following us for more on the weathermageddons and for everything weather and climate.





Windy Weather to Cause More Hazardous Seas and Economic Losses

8 01 2018

Dale C. S. Destin |

Hazardous seas being caused by frequently strong winds – gusting to near gale force at times, will continue to keep most mariners in or near port over the upcoming week – causing further significant economic losses for many.

Seas around Antigua and Barbuda have been rough for most of the year, so far, and are set to remain that way or even worsen over the next seven days, at least. As usual, this type of weather is very disruptive to marine activities and have a negative economic impact, particularly on fisherfolk, those alone the fisheries value-chain and those involve in offshore pleasure cruises and adventures.

Small craft warning remains in effect for hazardous seas around Antigua and Barbuda and will likely remain in place for the rest of the week. Hence, small craft operators, especially inexperienced ones, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Warnings are also in effect for beach-goers as high surfs are affecting beaches, producing beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. Beach-goers should avoid the waters, especially those on the northern and eastern side of the islands. These high surfs are likely to subside to more manageable levels by Tuesday.

High surfs can also cause strong rip currents, which can carry even the strongest swimmers out to sea, and seawater splashing onto low-lying coastal roads, causing damage. Further, high surfs can also knock spectators off exposed rocks and jetties. Breaking waves may also occasionally impact harbours making navigating the harbour channel dangerous.

The wind speed will range between 14 and 22 knots (16 to 25 mph) and at times gusting to near 30 knots (35 mph). The winds will be strongest on Tuesday and Friday and will blow from near east for most of the week.

Wind speed – valid at 6 am, Tue, Jan 9, 2018

Seas will remain hazardous with steep waves ranging between 2 and 3 metres (7 and 10 ft), occasionally reaching near 4 metres (13 ft), mainly in open waters on the eastern or windward side of the islands.

Significant wave height (ft) – valid at 6 am, Tue, Jan 9, 2018

These strong winds not only cause hazardous seas but also cause certain onshore activities to be uncomfortable, if not dangerous. Hence, certain outdoor work will be hampered, if not halted, at times; thus, reducing productivity in other sectors.

The windy conditions and hazardous seas will also be experienced by all the islands of the Eastern Caribbean along with Hispaniola and the Bahamas, particularly the Atlantic coastal waters or the eastern and northern coastal waters.

The strong winds are not due to any storm system but rather because of steep pressure gradients across the area. Recall that winds blow due to pressure differences or pressure gradients, and the greater the gradients the stronger the winds and vice versa.

Also, the strength and position of the ever-present subtropical/Atlantic high-pressure system modulate the steepness of the pressure gradient. The closer and or stronger the subtropical high, the steeper the gradient, the stronger the winds and vice versa.

The subtropical high-pressure system will be stronger than normal for much of the next week; hence, the forecast continuation of strong winds, hazardous seas, disrupted marine activities and economic losses.

Although windy, the weather will be mostly dry with only occasional brief showers likely.

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Dangerous Surfs to Threaten Beachgoers in Antigua and Barbuda Easter Monday

17 04 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |

Those heading to the beaches in Antigua and Barbuda should be wary of the threat of strong rip currents Easter Monday through Wednesday.

Seas Forecast Apr 17, 2017

Beaches on the northern and eastern sides of the islands will be at greatest risk for stronger and more frequent rip currents through midweek, due to large swells. Seas are on the rise and will peak on Tuesday with a combination of wind waves and swells nearing 3.0 metres (10 ft) occasionally reaching 3.8 metres (13 ft).

A huge low pressure system near the centre of the North Atlantic is pushing large swells to the region. Meanwhile, the winds in the area are on the increase, which will cause a rise in the wind waves.

Low pressure systems

Rip currents are not new to our shores. They are always present in situations like this and are characterised by water flowing away from the shore. The strength of the current is usually proportional the height of the swells.

Vacationers and residents should take precautions while at the beach. It would be prudent to seek out only beaches under the watch of lifeguards, if possible, and heed all warnings issued. The west facing beasches should be least affected.

Should you ever get caught in a rip current, never attempt to swim directly back to shore as you will be swimming against the current. Instead, swim parallel to the beach to escape the current’s grip before swimming ashore.

Small craft should use caution and heed all advisories, as seas will also be rough.

Similar sea conditions are forecast for most of the rest of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the eastern parts of the Bahamas, the Winward Islands and Barbados. The swells will also eventually reach Trinidad and Tobago and the Guyanas late Tuesday.

It is also likely to be a somewhat wet Easter Monday as the same low pressure system mentioned above is pulling a lot of moisture across the islands. The range of the possible rainfall total is wide – 0 to 12 mm (0 to 0.48 in).

The increasing wind will peak late Easter Monday at around 16 knots (18 mph) over open waters and 13 knots (15 mph) over land. Frequent higher gusts will take place.

Seas will return to near normal levels on Thursday.





Very Hazardous Marine Conditions for Antigua and Barbuda

14 01 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |

 

High Surf

High Surf

The shoreline Antigua and Barbuda and the rest of the northeast Caribbean are getting hammered by high surfs. Additionally, starting today, seas in open waters will become very unfriendly to small craft operators. As a result, the weather authority in Antigua and Barbuda has issued special marine statements on the high surfs and rough seas.

Surfs are building – they are expected to range 8-12 feet (2.4-3.6 m) between today and Monday, affecting mainly northern and eastern coastlines. These high surfs are being generated by a low pressure system located just northeast of the area, which is pushing very large swells to our shores.

There is a high risk of rip currents, especially over the next 24 hours when the surfs are expected to peak. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as groins such as jetties and piers.

The winds will become fresh to strongthey will frequently be in excess of 18 mph (16 knots) from today to Wednesday. The winds will peak at around 30 mph (22 knots) with occasional gale-force gusts to the around 39 mph (34 knots) today and Sunday likely.  These winds will primarily take place over open waters, coastal areas on the northern and eastern side of the islands and elevated areas.

windjan142017

windgustsjan142017

The seas will respond to the winds – they will become very rough, rising to as high as 3.6 metres (12 feet) on Saturday night Sunday. Waves will decrease to less than 2.0 metres (6 feet) by Wednesday.

seasjan142017

The cause of the strong winds – this is due to a significantly tight of the pressure gradient (horizontal differential of pressure) across, which will tighten a bit more over the next 24 hours. The relatively tight pressure gradient is in response to a strong high pressure system moving from west to east across the Atlantic from the United States. There are NO tropical cyclone (tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane) in the area.

Surface Chart

Surface Chart for Saturday 8 am, Showing a Tight Pressure a Tight Gradient as Evident by the Closeness of the Isobar (Pressure Lines)

Precautions – Sea-bathers should avoid the waters, mainly on the northern and eastern sides of the islands until Tuesday. Small craft operators should not venture far from port through Monday.

A high surf warning means that high surf will affect beaches in the advisory area, producing beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions.

A small craft advisory means that wind speeds of 24-38 mph (21 to 33 kt) and or seas of 7 feet (2.1 m) or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

The strong winds, especially if frequently gusting to gale force, could also make some outdoor activities very uncomfortable if not hazardous, please be guided accordingly.

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