June Updated Forecast for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

20 06 2022

Dale C. S. Destin |

My June updated forecast for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season is out, and it continues to call for a very busy and active season with the potential of being super hyperactive. As of June 20, the forecast is for 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

Recall that the accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE) is the universally accepted metric used to classify the overall activity of a hurricane season. The ACE forecast for this year is 186, 34 above the threshold for an active season, based on 1991-2020 data.

A super hyperactive season like 2017 also remains possible. There is a 37 percent chance of the ACE exceeding 223. Further, there is a 43 percent chance of more than 19 named storms; 24 percent chance of more than 11 hurricanes and also a 22 percent chance of more than 6 major hurricanes.

If the forecast pans out, this season would be the tenth most active, on record, in terms of ACE, dating back to 1851. It would also tie with 1933 for the fourth highest number of named storms.  

Recall, a typical season, based on the new standard climate period 1991-2020, has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), according to the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially goes until November 30.

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What does an Active Hurricane Season Mean for Antigua?

9 05 2022

Dale C. S. Destin |

The early forecast is for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season to be an active one or above normal. What could this mean for you? Will Antigua be affected by a named storm (tropical storm or hurricane)?

What is an active or above normal hurricane season? This is a season with the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index in the top third of the 1991-2020 dataset, or an ACE of 152 or higher. The ACE is a metric that takes into consideration not only the number of named tropical cyclones (subtropical storms, tropical storms or hurricanes) but also their strength and duration.

Given the forecast for an active hurricane season, there is a 43 percent chance/probability of a named storm passing within 105 nautical miles of Antigua or affecting (hitting of brushing) us. This translates into a named storm return period of 2 to 3 active years or a named storm affecting us every 2 to 3 active years, on average. Our last named storm during an active year was Tropical Storm Laura of 2020. This means statistically we are not due one this year, if the season turns out to be active, as forecast.

With an active season forecast, a named storm has a 28 percent probability of affecting us as a hurricane and an 18 percent probability of affecting us as a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher). On average, we get a hurricane passing within 105 nautical miles of Antigua every 3 to 4 active seasons and a major hurricane every 5 to 6 active seasons.

Our last hurricane during an active season, which was also a major hurricane, was Maria of 2017. It did not cause us hurricane winds, but it passed within 105 nautical miles to our southwest, affecting us with storm-force winds. Given we average a hurricane every 3 to 4 active years, and there has been only one active season since then, 2020; statistically, this means we are NOT due for a hurricane this year. Additionally, we are also NOT due a major hurricane this year.

What if a season is not active? For a near normal season, the chance of us being affected by a named storm drops to 23 percent and the chance of that named storm being a hurricane plummets to just 3 percent. If by some miracle, the season is below normal, the chance of a named storm passing within 105 nautical miles from Antigua is 21 percent with a 6 percent chance of it being a hurricane. For non-active seasons, near or below normal, we stand a zero percent chance of getting a major hurricane.

A tropical storm or hurricane not being due does not guarantee one will not occur. The fact that the probability of a named storm in any given year is not zero means that one could occur in any year, despite not being statistically due. An event with a given return period is said to be not due when the average return period has not yet elapsed. Because this is an average return period, the event can happen at any time before or after the return period.

Annually, based on the standard climate period of 1991 to 2020, taking all seasons into consideration, there is a 66 percent chance of a named storm affecting Antigua. Further, there is a 35 percent chance of the named storm being a hurricane and an 18 percent chance of it being a major hurricane.

Tracks of all 31 named storms to have passed within 105 nautical miles of Antigua, 1991 to 2020

Active hurricane seasons are generally not good for us, which may not come as a surprise to you. What may be new here are the relatively high chance of us being affected during such a season, which the forecast is calling for this year.

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Early Prediction: Very Busy 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

14 04 2022

Dale C. S. Destin |

This hurricane season will likely be another very busy one, exhausting the primary list of named storms, once again. My early forecast for the 2022 Season is out, and it calls for 21 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

In addition to being a very busy season, it is most likely to be an active season. Recall that the accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE) is the universally accepted metric used to classify the overall activity of a hurricane season. The ACE forecast for this year is 182, 30 above the threshold for an active season, based on 1991-2020 data.

A super hyperactive season is also possible. There is a 36 percent chance of the ACE exceeding 223. Further, there is a 49 percent chance of more than 19 named storms; 30 percent chance of more than 11 hurricanes and 29 percent chance of more than 6 major hurricanes.

If the forecast pans out, this season would be the third most active since 2017, in terms of ACE, and the tied with 1998 for the 10th most active on record dating back to 1851. It would also tie 2021 for the third highest number of named storms.  

According to other forecasts surveyed, the consensus is for an ACE of 161, 19 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, a busy and active season. This is generally consistent with my forecast but with a notable 21 less ACE. However, regardless of the forecast, you should always be well prepared each season, as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year and or life.

The main reason for the above normal forecasts is the current La Niña, which should last into the first half of the hurricane season and maintain favourable conditions for tropical cyclone formation even beyond August, into the peak of the hurricane season.

A typical season, based on the new standard climate period 1991-2020, has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), according to the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The last Atlantic hurricane season–2021, will be most remembered for being a very busy season with 21 named storms. Collectively, the season caused 103 deaths and over US$80 billion in damage. Major Hurricane Ida alone caused 55 deaths and over US$75 billion in damage.

This forecast will be updated monthly around the 14th of each month until August. The first update will be issued around May 14.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and concludes on November 30; nevertheless, in the last six years, there have been preseason tropical cyclones–be prepared!

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July Updated Forecast for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

12 07 2021

Dale C. S. Destin |

Category 1 Hurricane Elsa going through the southern Caribbean July 2, 2021.

Not the potentially stressful news anyone wants to hear, but it is what it is; the 2021 hurricane season could challenge the numbers of the 2020 record breaking season. My updated forecast for the Season is out, and it continues to call for an above normal season being pretty much expected. The confidence of an above normal season has increased to 79%. It is also possible that the season could be super hyperactive or well above normal, with numbers reaching the top 10 percentile 1991-2020 base period, which would also be top 8 of all times, dating back to 1851.

The prediction is now for 24 named storms (subtropical storms, tropical storms and hurricanes), with a 70 percent confidence or high confidence of the number ranging between 18 to 31. It is also very likely–74 percent chance (up 18), that the number of named storms will exceed 19 and be in the top 4 seasons of the historical record, dating back to 1851.

My forecast also calls for an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 191 (up 5) with a high confidence of the range being 119 to 288. Also predicted are 10 hurricanes (up 1) with a 70 percent confidence of  the total being 7 to 14, and 5 major hurricanes (unchanged) with high confidence of 3 to 7.

The season could not only be above normal but well above normal or super hyperactive. There is also a 45% chance of the ACE exceeding 223, the top 10 percentile of the 1991-2020 base period. Further, there is a massive 74% chance of more than 19 named storms or the number of named storms reaching the top 10 percentile. There is also a 45% chance of more than 11 hurricanes and 44% chance of more than 6 major hurricanes.

If this forecast pans out, this season would be the most active since 2017, in terms of ACE, and the 10th most active on record dating back to 1851. It would also be ranked third for the highest number of named storms and tied for 9th for the most hurricanes and major hurricanes respectively.

If the season turns out to be hyperactive, as is possible, it will rank even higher. Only seven seasons have had a higher ACE than 223; three seasons with more than 19 named storms; four with more than 11 hurricanes and two with more than 6 major hurricanes.

Already, the season is off to a “flyer”. Already, there has been five named storms (close to four times the average to date) and one hurricane (close to three times the average to date) . The ACE to date is 12.8. In other words, year-to-date, there is normally 1-2 names storms, instead of 5; 1 hurricane every three years and ACE of 4, as opposed to 12.8, which is over three times the normal rate, up to this point in the season.

The main reasons for the above normal forecasts are the likely above normal sea surface temperatures across the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and a weak La Niña conditions and or a cold-neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during August to October–the peak of the hurricane season.

A typical season, based on the standard climate period 1991-2020, has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), according to the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

This forecast is updated monthly around the 15th each month until August. The next update will be issued around August 15. Note that these forecasts are to be taken as guides and not as gospel.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and will conclude on November 30. Be prepared! Please share this blog, if you found it useful and follow me for more on the ongoing hurricane season, which, god forbid, could be another wild one like last year; also follow for all things weather and climate – TwitterFacebook and Instagram.





June Updated Forecast for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

19 06 2021

Dale C. S. Destin |

The numbers for this hurricane season are likely to be very high once again. My updated forecast for the 2021 season is out, and it continues to call for an above normal season being likely. The confidence of an above normal season has grown from 69 to 78%. It is also possible that the season could be super hyperactive with more than 19 named storms likely.

The prediction is still for 22 named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), with a 70 percent confidence or high confidence of the number ranging between 17 to 28. It is also likely–56 percent chance (down 2), that the number of named storms will exceed 19 and be in the top 10 percentile of the historical record, dating back to 1851.

My forecast also calls for an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 186 (up 7) with a high confidence of the range being 112 to 286. There is also a 44 percent chance (up 9) of the ACE index exceeding 223. Also predicted are 9 hurricanes (down 1) with a 70 percent confidence of  the total being 6 to 13, and 5 major hurricanes (up 1) with high confidence of 2 to 7.

If this forecast pans out, this season would be the most active since 2017, in terms of ACE, and the 10th most active on record dating back to 1851. It would also be ranked third for the highest number of named storms and tied for 11th and 17th for the most hurricanes and major hurricanes respectively.

The main reasons for the above normal forecasts are the likely above normal sea surface temperatures across the tropical North Atlantic and a weak La Niño and or cold-neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during August to October–the peak of the hurricane season.

A typical season, based on the standard climate period 1991-2020, has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), according to the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

This forecast is updated monthly around the 15th each month until August. The next update will be issued around July 15.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and will conclude on November 30. Be prepared! Please share this blog, if you found it useful and follow me for more on the ongoing hurricane season, which unfortunately could be another wild one, and for all things weather and climate – TwitterFacebook and Instagram.





2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Early Forecast

12 04 2021

Dale C. S. Destin |

We could have a repeat of the record breaking 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season this year. My early forecast for the 2021 Season is out, and it calls for above normal activity being likely. It predicts the most likely number of named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes) to be 21; however, there is a 70 percent or high confidence of the number ranging between 17 to 30. Recall that we had an unprecedented 30 named storms last year.

My forecast also calls for an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 184 with a high confidence of the range being 109 to 275. The ACE for the 2020 Season was 185; just one more than is forecast for this year. Also predicted are nine hurricanes with a 70 percent confidence of  the total being 6 to 14 and 5 major hurricanes with high likelihood of a range of 2 to 7.

If this forecast pans out, this season would be the third most active since 2005, in terms of ACE, and the 11th most active in the series dating back to 1851. It would also be ranked third for the highest number of named storms and tied for 11th and 17th for the most major hurricanes and hurricanes respectively.  

According to other forecasts surveyed, the average is for an ACE of 151, 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, an above normal season. This is generally consistent with my forecast but with a notable 22 percent less activity (ACE). Notwithstanding, I am very confident in the forecast; last year, my forecast consistently called for more storms than virtually all else and was the only one that indicated that the 2005 record could be broken and that we could get 30 or more named storms. However, regardless of the forecast, you should always prepare the same each season, as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year and or life.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) based on 6 forecasting entities.

Recall that the ACE is the universally accepted metric used to classify the overall activity of a hurricane season. It takes not only the number of named storms into consideration but also their intensities and duration. For example, the 2020 season had a record 30 named storms, eclipsing the record of 28 set in 2005; despite this, the ACE of 185, ranked it as the 10th most active season, eight spots behind 2005, which had an ACE of 250 and nine spots behind 1933–the record most active season with an ACE of 259. With respect to some other notable records, 2005 still holds the record for the most hurricanes with 15, and remains tied with 1961 for the highest number of major hurricanes–7.

The main reasons for the above normal forecasts are the likely above normal sea surface temperatures across the tropical North Atlantic and a cold-neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during August to October–the peak of the hurricane season.

A typical season, based on the standard climate period 1981-2010, has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), according to the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The last Atlantic hurricane season–2020, will be most remembered for the record 30 named storms with Major Hurricanes Laura, Delta, Eta and Iota. Collectively, they accounted for over 300 of the over 400 deaths from tropical cyclones and caused over US$32 billion of the US$51 billion in damage. The season also produced 13 hurricanes and 6 became major hurricanes.

Satellite images for all 30 named storms from the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Credit WMO

This forecast will be updated monthly around the 10th of each month until August. The first update will be issued around May 10.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and concludes on November 30; nevertheless, in the last five years, there have been preseason tropical cyclones–be prepared!

Please share this blog, if you found it useful and follow me for more on the upcoming hurricane season, which unfortunately could be a repeat of last year, for and all things weather and climate – TwitterFacebook and Instagram.





July’s Update: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

15 07 2019

Dale C. S. Destin |

My updated forecast for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is out and it continues to call for above normal activity (an active season) being likely. The probability of this happening is up from the previous forecast from 45% to 54%. Thus, I am more confident of an above normal season.

It calls for an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 127 (up 13), 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

Forecast parameters with 70 percent confidence intervals in (parentheses), right

A typical season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), according to the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

According to other forecasts surveyed, the consensus is for an ACE of 112, 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes – above to near normal season. Thus, my forecast is calling for more activity.  However, regardless of the forecast, you should always prepare the same each season, as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year and or life.

The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and will conclude November 30.

The next update will be issued around August 10.

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Early Forecasts for 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

11 04 2018

Dale C. S. Destin|

Our early season forecast for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season calls for above normal activity. The prediction is for an accumulated energy (ACE) index of 135, 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

Apr2018HurrucaneSeasonForecast

A typical season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), based on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was one of the most destructive for the Caribbean; several islands were almost totalled. Barbuda, one half of the twin island state of Antigua and Barbuda was left uninhabitable for a while. Ten of last year’s 17 named storms reached hurricane strength—meaning they had sustained winds of at least 119 km/h or 74 miles per hour—and six of the 10 hurricanes were major ones.

If this forecast pans out, 2018 would be the second most active since 2010; second to last year’s season.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and concludes on November 30.

We will be updating our 2018 forecast by June 10.

According to other forecasts surveyed, the consensus is for an ACE of 105, 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Thus, our forecast is generally calling for higher activity than most; however, regardless of the forecast, you should always prepare well each season, as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year.

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The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Early Forecast

15 04 2016

Dale C. S. Destin |

Early forecasts just issued for the upcoming 2016 Atlantic hurricane season (AHS) indicate a near normal season is most likely. However, relative to the past three years, this season could be much more active.

Ensemble forecast

The ensemble (mean) forecast, based on predictions from Klotzbach of Colorado State University, Saunders and Lea of Tropical Storm Risk.com (TSR) and AccuWeather.com, is for 13 named storms, 6 becoming hurricanes and 3 becoming major hurricanes.

2016_Hurricane_Season_Forecast

A better indicator of the activity for the season is the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index which is a measurement of the strength and duration of each tropical cyclone. Summing together the ACE of each cyclone, provides a more complete picture of how active the season is likely to be outside of just the number of storms.

This year, the ensemble forecast calls for an ACE index of 85. If this forecast pans out, the 2016 season would be around 136%, 27% and 35% more active than 2013, 2014 and 2015 respectively.

It must be noted though that there is very low skill in forecasting the AHS (June to November) in April. However, this is the best available forecast for the season, at this time, and can be used as a guide for what is possible. A more skillful forecast will be available around June 1.

End of Atlantic active phase?

Around 1995, the AHS went from a quiet to an active phase. The average annual number of named storms increased from 9 to 15. There is now increasing evidence that we have seen the end of that active phase.

If the active phase has in fact ended, it would mean a reduction in the mean number of tropical cyclones (depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes) across the Atlantic over the next 20 to 30 years. This would translate to an annually reduced probability (chance) of us being impacted by a tropical cyclone between now and around the year 2041.

The x factors

There are at least two climate factors that could cause the hurricane season to be quieter than is currently being predicted. El Nino is ongoing and is virtually synonymous with inactive AHSs. The forecast is for a transition from El Nino to neutral conditions around the middle of the year and possible La Nina around October. However, if El Nino were to persist beyond summer, we would see another quiet hurricane season. On the other hand, La Nina could lead to an active season.

The second potential inhibitor of the 2016 AHS is the transport of cooler-than-normal sea-surface-temperatures (SSTs) into the tropical North Atlantic by ocean currents originating south of Greenland. Reduced SSTs hinder tropical cyclone formation and growth.

Probability of Antigua being hit by a hurricane

According to Klotzbach, the likely best similar years to the upcoming 2016 AHS are 1941, 1973, 1983, 1992, 1998 and 2014. Of these years, we were hit by Hurricane Georges and Tropical Storm Bonnie in 1998 and Tropical Storm Christine in 1973. Thus, based ONLY on similar years, the probability of Antigua being hit this year by one or more named storms is around 39%, while the probability of one or more hurricanes is around 15%.

In general, the probability of Antigua being hit by one or more named storms annually appears to vary according to the phase of the Atlantic. During the quiet phase of 1962 to 1994, the probability of one or more named storms was around 26%, while the probability of one or more hurricanes was around 14%. Meanwhile, for the active phase of 1995 to present, the probability of one or more named storms increased to around 55%, while the probability of one or more hurricanes is around 35%.

Based on the climatological period of 1981-2010, the probability of being hit by one or more named storms is around 41%, while the probability of one or more hurricanes is around 28%.

2015 hurricane season and lessons learnt

The 2015 AHS was quiet; it produced 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. The ACE index total was 63, the fourth lowest since 1995. Notwithstanding it being a quiet year, Antigua was affected by Tropical Storms Danny and Erika. Damage was minor; however, closure of the country for around 24-hours, due to threat from Erika, caused an unknown loss of revenue.

Erika serves as a perfect reminder of the fact that flooding is a hazard associated with tropical cyclones. The system caused catastrophic flash floods across parts of Dominica, killing dozens of people. I our part of the world, we tend to focus a bit too much on the wind hazard associated with these systems.

Another lesson learnt was that it only takes one named storm to make it an active or miserable hurricane season for us. Thus, quiet season or not, the same hurricane season preparations are required each year.

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