Updated Hurricane Season Forecast – August Look Out You Must, 2020

12 08 2020

Dale C. S. Destin |

My “August look out you must” updated forecast for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is out, and it continues to call for an above normal season, which is likely to be very active/hyperactive – well above normal.

My forecast calls for 26 named storms (up 3), including ArthurBerthaCristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias, with 10 becoming hurricanes (up 1) and 4 becoming major hurricanes (down 1). The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index is forecast to be 218 (up 18). Further, there is a 70% confidence of

  • 20 to 32 named storms;
  • 7 to 15 becoming hurricanes;
  • 3 to 7 becoming major hurricanes and
  • 141 to 305 ACE.

If the forecast materializes, the ACE would be top 8 of all times. And if we use the ACE as an indicator of destructive potential, as some do, it means that the season’s destructive potential would also be top 8 of all times.

To date, the season has produced an ACE of 23.1, more than twice the usual amount for January through July. A normal season produces 106 ACE. Also, there have been nine named storms to date, two of which became hurricanes – over five time the average number of hurricanes of 1.9 and four times the usual number of hurricanes of 0.2. So, it has been a record busy season. Never before in history have we seen this many Atlantic tropical storms this early in the year.

If the forecast materializes, the ACE would be top 8 of all times. And if we use the ACE as an indicator of destructive potential, as some do, it means that the season’s destructive potential would also be top 8 of all times.

To date, the season has produced an ACE of 23.1, more than twice the usual amount for January through July. A normal season produces 106 ACE. Also, there have been nine named storms to date, two of which became hurricanes – over five time the average number of hurricanes of 1.9 and four times the usual number of hurricanes of 0.2. So, it has been a record busy season. Never before in history have we seen this many Atlantic tropical storms this early in the year.

The main reasons for the above normal forecast are the continuation of a much warmer than usual tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and a developing La Niña.

Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) Index – Reds for warmer than usual and blues for the opposite.
Pacific Ocean Niño3.4 – Reds for warmer than usual and blues for the opposite

The greater the likelihood of these two things happening at the same time – August to October, the greater the chances for an above normal season.

There is one thing that may mitigate these developing near perfect conditions for tropical cyclone formation – more than usual Saharan Dust, streaming across the area. If this were to continue, the forecast numbers would be lower. Unfortunately, we have no skill in forecasting the dust beyond a week; hence, we do not know if the dust will continue beyond August and deep into the peak of the months – August to October.

Compared to my forecast, most other forecasts continue to call for an above normal season. However, compared with most other forecasts, my forecast is calling for a much more active season – 34% more, on average.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) based on 15 forecasting entities, including 268Weather.

Clearly, we have no control over the numbers for the season. But notwithstanding the forecast, you should always prepare the same each season, as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year and or life.

This is my last forecast for this hurricane season. My first forecast for the 2021 season will be available around April 10. All the best for the rest of this 2020 season.

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May 2020 Updated Hurricane Season Forecast: Hyperactive Season Likely

11 05 2020

Dale C. S. Destin |

Our updated forecast for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is out, and it calls for higher than normal activity – an above normal season. The forecast predicts an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 189 (down 6 from the previous forecast), 19 named storms (down 1), 9 hurricanes (unchanged) and 4 major hurricanes (down 1). With these numbers, it is also likely that the season will be hyperactive i.e. well above normal and possibly unusually destructive.

If this forecast, for which there is very high confidence, pans out, this season would be the most active since 2017, in terms of ACE, and the 10th most active on record dating back to 1851.

The season also has the potential to be record breaking in some areas, as there is 70 percent confidence of

  • 14 to 23 named storms;
  • 6 to 12 becoming hurricanes;
  • 2 to 7 becoming major hurricanes and
  • 112 to 276 ACE.

If the higher end of the ranges were to materialise, records would be equalled or broken for the number of major hurricanes and more importantly ACE, which is the universally accepted metric used to classify the overall activity of a hurricane season.

According to other forecasts surveyed, the consensus is for an ACE of 146 (down 3), 17 named storms (up 1), 8 hurricanes (unchanged) and 4 major hurricanes (unchanged) – above normal season. This is generally consistent with my forecast but with less activity. However, regardless of the forecast, you should always prepare the same each season, as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year and or life.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) based on 10 forecasting entities, including 268Weather.

The main reasons for the above normal forecasts are the likely above normal sea surface temperatures across the tropical North Atlantic and a cold-neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or a weak cold ENSO, i.e. weak La Niña, during the peak of the hurricane season – August to October.

A typical season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), according to the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Click for pronounciations

With respect to records, the 2005 season has the highest number of named storms and hurricanes – 28 and 15 respectively. The 2005 season also tied with the 1961 season for the highest number of major hurricanes – 7, and the season with the highest ACE – the most active season on record, based on ACE only, is 1933 with 259.

The last Atlantic hurricane season – 2019, was more active than normal and will long be remembered for Super Category 5 Hurricane Dorian’s destruction of the northwest Bahamas. The season had 18 named storms, 6 became hurricanes – winds of at least 119 km/h or 74 miles per hour, and 3 became major hurricanes.

This forecast will be updated monthly until August. The next update will be issued around June 10.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins in days – June 1 and concludes on November 30, be prepared!

Please share this blog, if you found it useful and follow me for more on the upcoming hurricane season and all things weather and climate – TwitterFacebook and Instagram.








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