July Update: Below Normal Rainfall Still Most Likely for Antigua for 2022

9 07 2022

Dale C. S. Destin |

The prediction for rainfall remains unpromising. My latest updated forecast continues to call for most likely below normal rainfall for Antigua. The most likely total for the year is 1089 (42.9 in), up 9 mm (0.4 in) from the previous forecast. There is also a 70 percent or high confidence of the rainfall total falling in the range of 827 to 1405 mm (32.6 to 55.3 in).

The main reason for the below normal rainfall forecast is the cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), during the first half of the year, which led to a drier than normal dry season – January to June. Cooler than normal TNA SSTs favour suppressed rainfall conditions while the opposite enhances rainfall.

There is a La Niña underway, and this historically favours above normal rainfall for our area. Thus, the latter half of the year will most likely see near normal rainfall. However, because we are so deep in drought, normal rainfall is not going to cut it. Notwithstanding, below normal rainfall being most likely, there are relatively healthy probabilities for near or above normal totals – there is hope, think rain.    

A typical year, based on the new standard climate period 1991-2020, averages 1156.7 mm (45.54 in). The dry season averages 410 mm (16.14 in) and the wet season, July to December, averages 746.8 mm (29.40 in). Fall/autumn, September-November, accounts for 58 percent of the wet season total and 38 percent of the year’s total.

Regardless of the forecast, we all need to conserve water and be as efficient with its use as much as possible. Reducing our personal water footprint will literally redound to our individual and collective socio-economic benefit. Minimising your water footprint is also good for the climate, good for our environment and good for rainfall.

This forecast will be updated during the first week of August.

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Updated Prediction: Below Normal Rainfall Most Likely for Antigua for 2022

31 05 2022

Dale C. S. Destin |

The prediction for rainfall remains discouraging. My latest forecast continues to call for most likely below normal rainfall for Antigua. The most likely total for the year is 1080 (42.5 in), down 25 mm (1 in) from the previous forecast. There is also a 70 percent or high confidence of the rainfall total falling in the range of 590 to 1695 mm (23.2 to 66.7 in).

The main reason for the below normal rainfall forecast is the current trend of cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), which should last through summer (June-August). Cooler than normal TNA SSTs favour suppressed rainfall conditions while the opposite enhances rainfall.  

The year started out with a severe drought brought forward. This drought started in the winter of 2020/2021 and continues through the present. This May has been wetter than the last one; notwithstanding, it will end with well below normal rainfall. Year-to-date is drier than normal. Further, since the deluge of November 2020, the start of the current drought, there has been 943.1 mm (37.13 in) of rainfall, for December 2020 to May 2022. This total is so far below normal that it is the second driest such period on record.

The dry season, January to June, is on track to be drier than usual. Summer, June to August, is also likely to be drier than normal. Further, the first three quarters of this year (January to September) is likely to see deficit rainfall with a most likely total of 645 mm (25.4 in) compared to the usual amount of  759 (29.9 in). There is also a 29 percent chance of January to September having top 10 dryness.

WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble is forecasting 40-50% likelihood of below normal rainfall for Antigua and Barbuda for June to August. Also, below normal rainfall is likely for much of the rest of the Caribbean.

A typical year, based on the new standard climate period 1991-2020, averages 1156.7 mm (45.54 in). The dry season averages 410 mm (16.14 in) and the wet season, July to December, averages 746.8 mm (29.40 in). The fall/autumn, September-November, accounts for 58 percent of the wet season total and 38 percent of the year’s total.

This forecast will be updated monthly around the 25th of each month until August. The next update will be issued around June 25.

Regardless of the forecast, we all need to conserve water and be as efficient with its use as much as possible. Reducing our personal water footprint will literally redound to our individual and collective socio-economic benefit. Minimising your water footprint is also good for the climate, good for our environment and good for rainfall.

Please share this blog, if you found it useful, and follow me for more on the evolving drought and for all things weather and climate – TwitterFacebook and Instagram.





Early Prediction: Below Normal Rainfall Most Likely for Antigua

21 04 2022

Dale C. S. Destin |

The year will most likely be another drier than usual one for Antigua. My early forecast calls for the rainfall total for 2022 to most likely be 1105 mm (43.50 in) with a 70 percent or high confidence of it being in the range of 811 to 1463 mm (31.93 to 57.60 in).

The main reason for the most likely below normal rainfall forecast is the current cooler than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), which should last, at least, into the second half of the year. Cooler than normal TNA SSTs favour suppressed rainfall conditions while the opposite enhances rainfall.  

The year started out with a severe drought brought forward. This drought started in the winter of 2020/2021 and continues through the present. January 2022 was wetter than January 2021, but it was still only 72 percent of the normal total. The last two months, February and March, have been wetter than normal resulting in the intensity of the meteorological drought easing to slight. This easing is likely to be a brief respite, given the forecast.  

The dry season, January to June, will likely be below normal with a 60 percent chance. The forecast is for 298 mm (11.73 in) with high confidence of it ranging between 182 to 459 mm (7.17 to 18.07 in). This dry season could also be one of the top 10 driest. There is a 33 percent chance of this happening with the possibility of the total falling below 254 mm (10 in). Currently, the total stands at less than 203 mm (8 in) with April running well below normal at less than 25.4 mm (1.0 in) and the forecast indicating a better than 70 percent chance of May-June being drier than normal.

WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble is forecasting 70-80% likelihood of below normal rainfall for Antigua and Barbuda for May to July. Also, below normal rainfall is likely for much of the rest of the Eastern Caribbean.

A typical year, based on the new standard climate period 1991-2020, averages 1156.7 mm (45.54 in). The dry season averages 410 mm (16.14 in) and the wet season, July to December, averages 746.8 mm (29.40 in). The fall/autumn, September-November, accounts for 58 percent of the wet season total and 38 percent of the year’s total.

Rainfall-wise, last year–2021, will be most remembered for being the second driest on record with some parts of the country having record-breaking dry weather. There were likely significant socio-economic impacts but unfortunately, this has not been quantified.

This forecast will be updated monthly around the 21st of each month until August. The first update will be issued around May 21.

Regardless of the forecast, we all need to conserve water and be as efficient with its use as much as possible. Reducing our personal water footprint will literally redound to our individual and collective socio-economic benefit. Minimising your water footprint is also good for the climate and good for our environment.

Please share this blog, if you found it useful, and follow me for more on the evolving drought and for all things weather and climate – TwitterFacebook and Instagram.





Near Normal Rainfall for September, Drought Continues

27 10 2021

Dale C. S. Destin |

September joins June as the only two months of the year, thus far, to register near normal rainfall, all others had below normal figures. The month produced 122.2 mm (4.81 in) of rainfall, the highest total for any month since December 2020; notwithstanding, drought continues through September. The rainfall for the last nine months ranks among the worst on record, and it is still unclear as to when there will be significant respite.

The rainfall for September is the second lowest since 2015. However, the total for the month was a decent 90 percent of the normal value of 136.4 mm (5.37 in), only a deficit of 10 percent.

The period July-September was also drier than usual. The total of 268.7 mm (10.58 in) was the 18th lowest on record starting 1928. The last time this period was drier was 2015 with 168.1 mm (6.62 in).

We continue to witness one of the driest years on record. Thus far, this January to September is the sixth driest on record and the driest since 2015. The first three-quarters of the year has only a meagre 473.5 mm (18.64 in), only a little over 62 percent of the usual rainfall of 759.0 mm (29.88 in). The five drier January to September are 2015, 2003, 2001, 1939 and 1930. The year is on track to be among the top 10 driest or worst, on record.  

Since the 2020 November’s deluge, the last ten months, December-September, is the seventh driest on record and the lowest since 2015. The period has only returned 65 percent of normal rainfall.

The upcoming three months, November to January, has equal chance of below, near or above normal rainfall. Meanwhile, some of the more reliable models are still forecasting the continuation of below usual rainfall being most likely. Looking at the glass half full, near to above normal rainfall is more likely than not.

WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble is forecasting equal chance of below, near or above normal rainfall for Antigua and Barbuda.

As the meteorological drought goes, so go the other droughts: agricultural, hydrological and ecological. There is the continuing concern that this may precipitate a socio-economic drought, if it has not already done so. However, the rainfall of September did stabilise or eased the droughts a bit.

Our conversion of sea water to fresh water has built drought resilience; however, obtaining potable water from this source is several time more expensive than from surface and underground catchments. Also, it has negative climate and environmental consequences, further adding to the overall expense of using the sea as a source for fresh water. Unfortunately, these “evils” are virtually unavoidable, for the foreseeable future.

Potworks Reservoir remains below extraction levels, along with most other surface catchments, according to the Antigua Public Utilities Authority (APUA), the country’s water authority. Water rationing continues and with the rainfall outlook unclear, an end is unforecastable, at this time. Daily water use continues to outstrip production by about one million gallons.

Potworks Reservoir, Bethesda, Antigua, still on the verge of becoming totally dry – Oct 2, 2021. Picture courtesy Karen Corbin of the Humane Society

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Drier than Usual August, Drought Continues

27 09 2021

Dale C. S. Destin |

Like every month of the year, except June, August was drier than usual. The month yielded only 81.0 mm (3.19 in) of rainfall. With continued below normal rainfall, drought continues. The rainfall for the last eight months ranks among the worst on record and there is still not much respite in sight.

The rainfall for August is the second lowest since 2015. The total for the month represents only 71 percent of the normal value of 114.8 mm (4.52 in), a deficit of 29 percent.

The period June-August was also drier than usual. The total of 202.2 mm (7.96 in) was the 18th lowest on record starting 1928. The last time this period was drier was 2015 with 95.0 mm (3.74 in).

We continue to witness one of the driest years on record. The last eight months is the fourth driest on record and the driest since 2015. January to August produced only a meagre 351.3 mm (13.83 in), only a little above half of the usual rainfall of 622.0 mm (24.51 in). Just three years have been drier through August: 2015, 2001 and 1939.  

Since the 2020 November’s deluge, the last nine months, December-August, is the fifth driest on record and the lowest since 2015. The period has only returned 61 percent of normal rainfall.

The upcoming three months, October to December, is likely to see further misery from lower than usual rainfall. Majority of models are forecasting the continuation of drier than normal weather. Hence, more rainfall deficits likely.

WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble is forecasting 50-60% likelihood of below normal rainfall for Antigua and Barbuda. Also, below normal rainfall is likely for much of the rest of the northeast Caribbean.

As the meteorological drought goes, so go the other droughts: agricultural, hydrological and ecological. There is the continuing concern that this may precipitate a socio-economic drought, if it has not already done so. Our utilisation of the ocean for fresh water has made us drought resilient; however, obtaining potable water from this source is several time more expensive than from surface and underground catchments. Also, it has negative climate and environmental consequences, further adding to the overall expense of using the sea as a source for fresh water.  

Potworks Reservoir remains below extraction levels, along with most other surface catchments, according to the Antigua Public Utilities Authority (APUA), the country’s water authority. Water rationing is officially into its second month and with the rainfall outlook being gloomy, it is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

Potworks Reservoir, Bethesda, Antigua, still on the verge of becoming totally dry – Sep 2, 2021. Picture courtesy Karen Corbin of the Humane Society

APUA water manager, Ian Lewis, told the media on August 31, that the Authority is only able to produce six million of the seven-and-a-half million gallons required to serve the country daily. There is not enough water to go around for everyone each day; hence, the rationing.

Antigua is not alone in experiencing significant rainfall shortages. The countries around us remain  thirsty for rainfall also. Deficit rainfall is occurring across the rest of the Leeward Islands, the northern Windward Islands, Hispaniola, Cuba and the Bahamas. And it is probable that it will worsen, over the upcoming months.

CMORPH 180-Day Total Rainfall Anomaly (mm) for the period 26 Mar to 21 Sep 2021

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2nd Driest May on Record, Serious Drought Continues

23 06 2021

Dale C. S. Destin |

We have just witnessed the second driest May, in Antigua, on record dating back to 1928. It was also the bottom 10 driest March-May and the bottom 4 driest January-May. With such significant rainfall shortage, the meteorological drought continues for Antigua, with a return to serious intensity. Much of the drought impacts are being mask; notwithstanding, the country is feeling it deep in the pocket and models indicate that this will continue for much of the upcoming three months.

WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble is forecasting 50-60% likelihood of below normal rainfall for Antigua and Barbuda. Also, below normal rainfall is likely for much of the Caribbean Basin.

The rainfall for May was 17.3 mm (0.68 in), the lowest since 2001, when the country had 6.4 mm (0.25 in). The total for the month was almost unimaginably low at 17 percent of the normal of 101.1 mm (3.98 in). Only eight other Mays have had less than an inch of rain. Overall, it was the 13th driest month of all 1121 on record.

The meteorological spring, March-May, was also very dry. The total of 85.3 mm (3.36 in) was the ninth lowest for the season. The last time we had a drier spring was 2015.  

We continue to witness one of the driest years on record and easily the driest since 2015. The year-to-date total is a meagre 149.1 mm (5.87 in), only 44 percent of the usual rainfall of 341.6 mm (13.45 in). The absent rainfall, 192.5 mm (7.58 in), is more than the annual average for January, February and March combined. Only three other years have had a drier start: 2015 with 140.2 mm (5.52 in); 2001 with 113.0 mm (4.45 in) and 1939 with 131.8 mm (5.19 in).

Our last wet month was November, which was floodingly wet. Since then, the last six months, December-May, is the fourth driest on record and the lowest since 2015. The period has only yielded 53 percent of normal rainfall. Our drying catchments and thirsty brownish landscape bear witness to the missing rainfall.

The upcoming season, July to September, is likely to be drier than normal. The majority of models are forecasting the continuation of deficit rainfall. Hence, the drought is likely to continue. Our largest catchment, Potworks Dam, along with others, could again revert to dry lands and shortcuts for vehicular traffic.

Based on models which correlate our sea surface temperatures, across the tropics, with our rainfall, the medium and long term continue to look brown. This dry season, January-June, is expected to be among the five driest on record. Meanwhile, the year is likely to be drier than usual with a 58 percent chance of below normal rainfall; this is up 12 percent from last month. There is a non-trivial 18 percent probability of the year’s rainfall falling in the bottom 10 percentile.

As the meteorological drought goes or worsens, so go or will the other droughts: agricultural, hydrological and ecological. There is also the growing concern that this may precipitate a socio-economic drought, if it has not already done so. Our utilisation of the ocean around us for fresh water has made us resilient; however, at a very high cost, as potable water from this source cost at least seven times that from surface and ground water.  

Potworks Dam is close to falling below extraction levels. With the rainfall outlook bleak, we could be out of surface water in weeks. Water rationing is imminent, if not already occurring.

Antigua is not alone in experiencing significant rainfall shortages. Much of the Eastern Caribbean remains  thirsty for rainfall. Deficit rainfall is occurring across many places, and it is probable that the it will worsen and or spread to other islands, over the upcoming months, based on recent forecasts, particularly the central Windward Islands to the Dominican Republic. For May, most of the Caribbean Basin had less that 50 percent of the usual rainfall, with some areas receiving less than ONE percent.

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Drought Worsens to Serious Levels

20 04 2021

Dale C. S. Destin |

With continued below normal rainfall through March, the meteorological drought has worsened to serious levels for Antigua. That is the “good” news, the bad news is that the drought is likely to get worse over the next few months, as below normal rainfall is forecast by most models.

WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble is forecasting 60-70% likelihood of below normal rainfall for Antigua and Barbuda; only two of the 12 models forecast near normal rainfall. Also, below normal rainfall is likely for much of the Caribbean Basin.

This is the driest start to a year since 2015 and the ninth driest first-quarter for Antigua in a series that dates to 1928. The island-average rainfall of 93.0 mm (3.66 in) represents only 57 percent of the normal total for January to March (JFM); hence, 43 percent of the regular flow of water from our skies was missed by our plants, catchments, economy and ecosystems.

The rainfall for March of 29.2 mm (1.15 in) is the worst for the month since 2015. The total was only 63 percent of the usual amount for the first month of spring; hence, a significant deficit of 37 percent.

There is no discernible respite in the foreseeable future. The vast majority of models are forecasting deficit rainfall to be the order of the next six months. Thus, the drought is likely to get worse. Our catchments could again revert to mud patches and or grasslands, which has virtually become an annual phenomenon.

Other droughts generally lag a meteorological drought; however, it is evident from our catchments that agricultural, hydrological and ecological droughts, to some degree, are occurring or imminent. There is also the concern that this may precipitate a socio-economic drought. Our utilisation of the ocean around us for fresh water has made us resilient; notwithstanding, there are still likely to be notable impacts, direct and indirect, when the other droughts get underway in earnest.

The water authority, the Antigua Public Utilities Authority (APUA), has already signal an end to surface water to occur in a few months, that is even more likely than when it was said over a month ago, as rainfall for April has been virtually absent, thus far. Water rationing is imminent, if not already occurring.

Antigua is not alone in experiencing significant first-quarter rainfall deficits. Much of the Eastern Caribbean is having a similar thirst for rainfall. Short and long-term droughts continue to evolve across many places, and it is probable that the shortfall is precipitation will worsen and or spread to most of the Basin over the upcoming months.

Exert from the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) Drought Outlook for March 2021

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Drought Deepens…Relief Uncertain

9 07 2020

Dale Destin|

The paltry rainfall for the last three months for Antigua, has caused the meteorological drought to plunge from moderate to severe levels. The rainfall for April-June (AMJ) amounted to only 82.6 mm (3.25 in). This is the sixth driest AMJ on record, dating back to 1928. Further, the rainfall for AMJ represents only meagre 32 percent of the normal total of 274.6 mm (10.81 in). 

Potworks Dam in the background, going on three months, without a drop of its billion-gallon-water capacity. (“Normal” corrected for units Jul 14, 2020)

Other droughts have also tumbled with the meteotological drought, which is considered the mother of them all. These others are at moderate or worse intensity.

The rainfall for June was below normal for the third month in a row. The rainfall of 45.7 mm (1.80 in) was only 66 percent of the normal total for the month of 69.3 mm (2.73 in).

Although drier than normal, it was wetter than the last two Junes combined and more than the last two months combined. This is an indication of just how dry those months were.

Recall that we had very happy first-quarter rainfall. The first three months of the year was wetter than normal. However, since then, things have gone south. Rainfall for the year, thus far, for the dry season – Jan to June, stands at below normal.

The dry season rainfall of 320 mm (12.6 in) amounts to just 74 percent of the normal total of 434.3 mm (17.1 in). It is the driest three-month period since June-August 2018.

The woefully low rainfall since March looks to be mainly due to higher than normal pressure at the lower levels of the atmosphere. This unusual arrangement of pressure resulted in, more often than usual, sinking air, which inhibited warm rising air needed for cloud formation and rainfall.  A record amount of Saharan Dust during June would have also played a huge role in stifling rainfall.

Low level pessure anomaly across the Caribbean Basin and parts of the North Atlantic – April 1 to June 30, 2020. Higher that usual low level pressure inhibits the water cycle and hence, rainfall.
High-level Omega anomaly across the Caribbean Basin and parts of the North Atlantic – April 1 to June 30, 2020. Positive values indicate sinking motion, which is bad for rainfall.

Relief from the drought weather is becoming uncertain. The forecast for July-September (JAS) is for a 45 percent chance of above normal rainfall. This means that rainfall required to bring us out of drought is unlikely.

Looking beyond JAS, my latest forecast calls for less than 40 percent chance of above normal rainfall for the rest of the year, the wet season – July to December. This means that near or below normal rainfall is more likely than drought busting rainfall.  

Considering the whole year, 2020 will most likely be drier than usual. My latest projection is for a 50 percent chance of below normal rainfall, 30 percent chance of the usual rainfall and 20 percent chance of the year getting more than usual rainfall.

How dry it is projected to be? At this time, Antigua’s most likely rainfall for 2020 is 1026 mm (40.4 mm) with a 70 percent confidence that it will fall in the range of 760 to 1349 mm (30 to 53 in). Normally, the island gets 1207 mm (47.5 in).

Projected rainfall for Antigua in inches. There is a 20% chance of it being above normal (A 20%), 30% chance of it being near normal (N 30%) and 50% chance of it being below normal (B 50%). Background pic courtesy Karen Corbin of the Humane Society.

The parched weather was not restricted to Antigua and Barbuda. Much of the rest of the region have been suffering the same fate. There are a few exceptions, most notably is Cuba.

May was a record dry month for Anguilla and St. Thomas. Parts of the Dominican Republic and Belize saw record low rainfall for April. Severe or worse droughts are being experienced in many islands, including Aruba, Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia.

Rainfall anomaly across the Caribbean Basin – January 7 to July 4, 2020 based on CPC CMORPH

Large scale atmospheric and ocean conditions continue to trend in the direction that would usually cause relief across the Caribbean Basin, including Antigua and Barbuda. However, models continue to not be very enthusiastic about forecasting significant rainfall for much of the region.

The favourable conditions for rainfall for our area are: warmer than usual tropical North Atlantic and cooling of the central to eastern equatorial Pacific i.e. a developing La Nina. Once these two things happen together, we invariably get good rainfall. However, what we can’t predict beyond a week, could negate the positive conditions – Saharan Dust, the x-factor. If it does not let up, it will suppress rainfall and wipe out any optimism in the forecasts for drought-stopping rain.

From all that have been examined, the drought is unlikely to end for the foreseeable future and if it were to, it would only be temporary. This is not to say that we won’t see more rainfall in the second half of the year than the first. We will; however, it is unlikely to end the drought.

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Temporary Interruption to Dry Weather; Droughts Eased

29 04 2019

Dale C. S. Destin |

Drought Level is Slight

A drier than normal start to the year continues across Antigua; however, there was a temporary interruption – March turned out wet, relatively. The month had 59.6 mm (2.35 in), the most for March since 2013. Most of the rain fell on the 29 March – over 52%, otherwise the story for the month would have been quite different. The rainfall for March was 15% more that usual; notwithstanding, droughts continue, although eased a bit.

The last three-month period – January to March, upon which the assessment of the current intensity of the drought is based, was below normal. The period had 127.5 mm (5.02 in), while the normal amount of rainfall is 176.0 mm (6.93 in).

Rainfall totals for the past 24 months plus normals, anomalies and records

We remain in a severe meteorological drought, the worst category on our drought scale. However, at the moment, the current intensity is slight, down from moderate. Recall that the overall description of the drought is based on the worst intensity achieved during its lifetime; however, over time, the intensity will fluctuate. Severe intensities were observed May-July and June-August of last year.

Potworks Dam, our billion-gallon surface catchment, has fallen below extraction levels – not potable water is currently available from the Dam. Water rationing is imminent but has been delayed by the presence of a number of desal plants operating in the country.  

Potworks Dam as of April 2, 2019 – drying up; picture courtesy Karen Corbin of the Humane Society

The eighteen-month period – October 2017 to March 2019, the duration of the drought thus far, is deemed severely dry. The total for the period of 1170.9 mm (46.10 in) is the fourth lowest on record, for such a period, dating back to 1928. This interval normally gets 1781.3 mm (70.13 in), which means a rainfall deficit of near 34% – close to one-third of the usual rain was absent.

Based on the last set of rainfall forecasts from regional and especially international sources, the news remains discouraging for rainfall. Overall, below normal rainfall is likely for the next six months – May to October 2019. Thus, there is every reason to believe that the droughts will not only continue but reintensify. The chance of the droughts ending is, at the very most, 30% or low.

Probabilistic multi-model ensemble forecast of rainfall for May-July 2019, based on 12 global models – 70 to 80% chance of below normal rainfall for Antigua and Barbuda

Early projections have us with a 60 chance of being drier than normal for the year, with a 45% chance of the rainfall total being in the bottom 20th percentile of all years. Further, around 977 mm (38.5 in) of rain is forecast for 2019, with a 70% chance it falling in the range 699 to 1321 mm (27.5 to 52.0 in).  

On average, our severe meteorological droughts last for around 16 months, but not continuously at severe intensity. At current, the drought is in its 19th month; the longest such drought on record lasted 38 months – Jul 2013 to August 2016.

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August 2016 to January 2017 Climate Outlooks for Antigua and Barbuda

16 08 2016

Dale C.S. Destin |

The August 2016 to January 2017 climate outlooks are now available for Antigua and Barbuda. Over the short, medium and long-term the rainfall is likely to be above to near normal.  Thus, there is a moderate chance of, at least, a temporary end to some droughts over the upcoming six months. Meanwhile, uncomfortably warm temperatures are expected for the upcoming six months. August-October (ASO) is the most active part of the hurricane season and is likely to be the most active since 2012.

Drought

July 2016 was wetter than the last three Julys and wetter than the last two combined; however, it was not wet enough to end the droughts (meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and socioeconomic). We have now entered the 38th month of mostly moderate or worse rainfall deficits; however, since April, the meteorological and agricultural droughts have been at slight levels.

May-Oct2016 Rainfall Outlook

Looking forward – the meteorological and agricultural droughts could ease further or perhaps come to, at least, a temporary end as August has a 60% chance of being wetter than usual, and there is a 40% chance of the ASO period getting above normal rainfall. Over the long run, above  to near normal rainfall is likely. Notwithstanding, drought warnings and watches are in effect for various periods through January 2017.

The warm phase of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – El Nino, came to an end in May leaving in its wake significant adverse impacts. There is now around a 60% chance of the cold phase of ENSO i.e. La Nina developing during the last third of the year or the latter half of our wet season. A few months, ago the chance of La Nina was in excess of 75%, so its chance of develop is on the decline; nevertheless, it is still more likely than not.

If you are in our part of the world – the Caribbean, a La Nina would be more than welcome. Unlike El Nino, La Nina often brings us more than usual rainfall, and with the record drought we are still experiencing, water is more precious than gold at the moment.

Unlikely, but a much wetter than normal wet season (July-December) is desperately needed to end our severe multi-year droughts.

Precipitation and temperature

Year-to-date, Antigua, on average, has had more than twice the amount of rainfall than for the same period last year. Nevertheless, we are still over 100 mm (four inches) in the “red” relative to the long-term average of 534.9 mm (21.06 in).

This up-tick in rainfall is likely to generally continue over the long-term – August 2016 to January 2017, there is a 75% probability of above to near normal rainfall. However, the projected rainfall for 2016 is 657 to 1218.5 mm (25.9-48.0 in) or below to near normal.

The summer heat is likely to continue through October with the ASO “season” likely to be warmer than usual. With a high confidence of warmer than usual weather, there is also the potential for extreme temperatures. The heat could be very distressing for many especially since both night-time and day-time temperatures are likely to be higher than usual. High than usual night-time temperatures are likely to continue through January 2017. This has negative implications for health, especially among older adults, infants and young children.

The hurricane season

Thus far for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, there have been five named storms and two hurricanes (Alex and Earl). The number of storms is considered above normal relative to the long-term average of three. However, the ACE, which matters most, is near normal.

Recently issued hurricane season forecasts have reasserted that the 2016 season is likely to be the most active since 2012. Notwithstanding, the forecast is for the season to fall in the near normal range with around 15 named storms, 7 becoming hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes; this includes those already formed.

Notwithstanding the forecast, we need to be fully prepared, as it only takes one hurricane to set our life and community back by decades. Be prudent: prepare for the worst and hope for the best!

See the following links for the full outlooks: August 2016, August-October 2016, November 2016-January 2017, August 2016-January 2017, Drought, 2016 Updated Hurricane Season Forecast.

The next set of outlooks will be available by September 3, 2016.

Correction, August 19, 2016: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated the rainfall forecast for August 2016 to January 2017. The forecast is for above to near normal rainfall rather than below to near normal.





April to September 2016 Climate Outlooks for Antigua

1 04 2016

Dale C. S. Destin |

The latest climate outlooks are now available for Antigua. Unhappily, the news remains bleak. Below normal rainfall and above normal temperature are expected/likely for the upcoming six months – April-September 2016.

Drought

Antigua remains in drought, which has been ongoing for a record 33 months, based on record dating back to 1928.

Currently, a moderate drought or worse is evolving over the periods – January to June 2016, November 2015 to July 2016 and October 2015 to September 2016. All three periods are likely to see below normal rainfall. Drought warnings remain in place and will likely continue through the third quarter of the year.

https://268weather.files.wordpress.com/2016/04/jan-junrainfall2.png

The best rainfall forecast for Jan-Jun is around 271.8 mm (10.7 in); however, there is a 70% chance of it ranging between 152.7-443.6 mm  (6.0 to 17.5 in)

It is expected that El Nino will transition to a neutral state around the middle of the year and possibly to La Nina in the last third. La Nina, unlike El Nino, generally encourages rainfall across our area mainly during the wet season. Thus, there is light at the end of the tunnel but, at the moment, it’s a bit distant.

Precipitation and Temperature

Over the upcoming three months – April to June, near normal rainfall could ease the drought; however, an end to it is not anticipated.

Meanwhile, July to September is expected to see below normal rainfall. Thus, even if the drought eases during April to June, the following three months will see it reintensifying.

In the short-term, there are hopes of this dry season (January-June) being wetter than last year’s; however, it is likely to be drier than usual when compared to 1981-2010 average.

All forecast timescales (April, April-June, July-September, April-September) are likely/expected to have warmer than normal temperatures.

See the following links for the outlooks: April 2016, April-June 2016, July-September 2016, April-September 2016, Drought.

The next set of outlooks will be available by May 3, 2016.








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