Wetter Than Normal November Eases Drought to Slight

31 12 2018

Dale C. S. Destin |

DroughtMeterNovember’s rainfall was higher than usual – 135% of the average for the month. The total of 204 mm (8.03 in) makes this November the 21 wettest on record. The very welcome rainfall has ease the meteorological drought to slight levels and have also eased or eliminated other droughts.

Over 95% of the rainfall for November fell during the first 15 days of the month, making it the second wettest such period on record. The rainfall was caused by a cold front and a series of troughs.

The last three-month period – September to November, upon which the assessment of the current intensity of the drought is based, was slight dry. Notwithstanding a wetter than normal November, the last three months, as a time interval, had below normal rainfall with 370.6 mm (14.59 in) recorded. This is the lowest since 2015 and the second lowest since 2009.


Rainfall for the past 24 months for varying time intervals compared to the normal/average and records

We remain in a severe meteorological drought, the worst category on our drought scale. However, at the moment, the current intensity is slight. Recall that the overall description of the drought is based on the worst intensity achieve during its lifetime; however, over time, the intensity will fluctuate. Last month the intensity was at serious levels.

Potworks Dam, with a billion-gallon capacity, has moved from near totally dry to being one-third full, two-third empty – depending on your perspective. The water levels have gone above extraction height and I am advised that the same is true for the other smaller catchments.

Potworks Dams Nov13_2018_KarenCarbin

Potworks Dam – Nov 13, 2018. Complements Karen Corbin of the Humane Society

Potable water has become more readily available and water rationing has apparently cease, for now. This is indicative of huge dent November’s rainfall made on the droughts.

The fourteen-month period – October 2017 to November 2018, the duration of the drought thus far, is deemed severely dry. The total for the last 14 months of 977.6 mm (38.49 in) is the second lowest since 2001 – only the similar period October 2014 to November 2015 was drier. October of one year to November of the next normally gets 1514.6 mm (59.63 in), which means that there is a large rainfall deficit of around 35% – more than one-third of the usual rain did not fall.

Based on the last set of rainfall forecasts from regional and especially international sources, the news is discouraging with respect to rainfall. Overall, below normal rainfall is most likely for the next six months – January to June 2019, with relatively high confidence that the period January to March 2019 will be drier than normal – possibly well below normal. Thus, there is every reason to believe that the droughts will continue and likely reintensify. The chance of the droughts ending is, at most 30% or low.


Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast of Rainfall For Jan-Mar 2019, based on 12 global model

On average, our severe meteorological droughts last for around 16 months, but not continuously at severe intensity. At current, the drought is in its 15th month; the longest such drought on record lasted 38 months – Jul 2013 to August 2016.

I now expected 2018 to be among the top 10 direst years on record with the island-average total less than 900 mm or less than 35 inches. We normally get 1206.5 mm or 47.5 inches.


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All the best for 2019!

Our Inaugural Forecast of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

5 07 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |

We have just released our first inhouse-produced forecast of the Atlantic hurricane season. It calls for an above normal season with 16 named storms, 7 becoming hurricanes and 4 reaching major hurricane status.

The main reasons for the above normal forecast are the warmer than usual tropical North Atlantic and the unlikely development of an El Nino. This season could turn our similar to last year’s and be one of the most active since 2010.

We hope that you find this forecast to be a useful resource in your hurricane season preparations. Please feel free to share you feedback with us as usual.  Click here for the full forecast.

Become hurricane strong!

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The Latest Round of Seasonal Forecasts for Antigua – Mar to Aug 2016

3 03 2016

Dale C. S. Destin |

Our latest round of seasonal forecasts for Antigua is indicating that the current record longest drought will likely continue into the second half of the year. Both the spring and summer rainfall forecasts are calling for below to near normal rainfall.


The previous round of forecasts had indicated a high chance of the drought easing to slight levels or ending around the middle of the year. However, the latest round of forecasts is backing away from the optimism of significant showers over the period May-July.

Notwithstanding our forecasts for the upcoming seasons, the prospects for drought busting rainfall is still possible. A number of the global models are forecasting above normal rainfall for the mentioned seasons. However, our downscaled forecasts, which we believe have better skill for our region, are predicting drier than normal weather will persist.

Our drought outlook is also in support of the drought continuing beyond the middle of the year. The periods December 2015-May 2016, October 2015 to June 2016 and September 2015 to August 2016 are projected to see moderate to major rainfall deficits.

Temperatures for the upcoming six months are generally expected to be above normal. Hence, this spring and summer are anticipated to be warmer than normal. This could further exacerbate the scarcity of water.

The next round of forecasts, which will cover April to September 2016, will be available by April 3. Hopefully, we will have better news then. All of our outlooks can be found here

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