June’s Update: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

12 06 2019

Dale C. S. Destin|

My updated forecast for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is out and it continues to call for above normal activity (an active season) being most likely. The probability of this happening is virtually unchanged from the previous forecast – 45%.

It calls for an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 114 (up 1), 13 named storms (up 1), 6 hurricanes (down 1) and 3 major hurricanes (up 1). Another way of interpreting my forecast is that it is calling for an above to near normal season – 80% probability.

Forecast parameters with 70 percent confidence intervals in (parentheses), right

A typical season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), according to the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

According to other forecasts surveyed, the consensus is for an ACE of 114, 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes – above to near normal season, which is now almost identical to my forecast. However, regardless of the forecast, you should always prepare the same each season, as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year and or life.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and concludes November 30.

The next update will be issued around July 10.

Please share this blog, if you found it useful and follow me for more on the upcoming hurricane season and all things weather and climate – TwitterFacebook and Instagram.



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