4th Driest May on Record for Antigua

5 06 2020

Dale C. S. Destin|

Potworks Dam, Antigua – June 1, 2020. Currently dry but when full, holds a billion gallons. Pic courtesy Karen Corbin – Humane Society

May 2020 was another very dry month for Antigua. The rainfall total of 20.8 mm (0.82 in) was the lowest since 2001 and the fourth lowest on record dating back to 1928. Only May 2001, 1939 and 1928 have been drier, with May 2001 being the driest with 6.4 mm (0.25 in).

Relative to the normal total for the month of 103.6 mm (4.08 in) only 20% fell; hence, the month had a rainfall deficit of 80%, based on the current base period of 1981-2010.

Such a low rainfall total for May is relatively rare. It happens once every 21 years, on average or has only 4-5% probability of occurring each year.

The rainfall for May is almost “bipolar” – you either get a lot or a little. This makes the rainfall for the month the most unpredictable with the highest variability index of all the months.

The dryness for May was not confined to Antigua. Most of the region from Hispaniola to Trinidad saw, at most, only 25% of the normal rainfall for the month.

The reason for the truant rainfall looks to be due mainly to higher than normal surface pressure and lower than normal relative humidity.  

Rainfall for the year has now fallen to below normal after an excellent start in the first quarter. There are some hopes for the return of seasonal or above seasonal rainfall over the upcoming months. The current forecast is for above normal rainfall for the period June to August.

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